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52 I Southeast Europe bne May 2023
Erdogan speaking at an iftar dinner on April 3, addressing lawmakers and earthquake victims. / Turkish Presidency.
Erdogan has never had a smooth relationship with the Biden administration. In August 2020, Erdogan’s officials were angered when an interview with Biden, filmed by the New York Times the previous December, was released featuring the then presidential candidate Biden describing the Turkish leader as an “autocrat”.
In the interview, Biden criticised Erdogan’s policy towards the Kurds, and added that, “He has to pay a price”, before stating that Washington should embolden Turkish opposition leaders “to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, not by a coup, but by the electoral process.”
In a fair election, Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) could indeed prove to be the kingmaker that topples Erdogan. The HDP last month announced that it would not put forward its own presidential candidate. That move means its supporters can vote for Kilicdaroglu. The Kurds account for up to a fifth of Turkey’s population.
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Election tensions were heightened on March 31 after two bullets hit the Istanbul office of the opposition IYI (Good) party.
A night guard at a nearby construction site was apprehended and, according to the authorities, told police that
he accidentally hit the party's office building with gunshots while he was chasing thieves.
However, IYI party leader Meral Aksener linked the incident to inflammatory
of him, saying: “She is messing with the wrong people. Be careful, don’t get yourself in trouble with me.”
Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, has promised that if elected he will repeal the law that makes insulting the president a crime.
On the markets, bond traders have been trimming bearish Turkey bets on
a possible Erdogan defeat.
By some accounts, Erdogan sees a path to victory in a second round of run-off
“Washington should embolden Turkish opposition leaders to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, not by a coup, but by the electoral process”
comments made toward her by Erdogan earlier in the week. In those remarks, Erdogan snapped at Aksener’s criticism
voting that would be opened up by a strong performance by a third candidate, Muharrem Ince, in the first round.