Page 59 - bne_May magazine 2023_20230503 BRICS

bne May 2023 Eastern Europe I 59
Kyiv willing to start peace talks with
Russia if its forces reach Crimea
bne IntelliNews
In a major concession, Kyiv says it is willing to start peace talks with Russia if its forces reach the Crimea borders, the Financial Times reported on April 6.
Quoting a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Andriy Sybiha, the statement comes after peace talks were cut short with the Kremlin in April last year.
Since then Zelenskiy has taken a hard line, saying he won’t meet with President Vladimir Putin in person and that
peace negotiations cannot begin until Russian forces quit the entire territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
Now, Sybiha said that if Ukraine’s forces reach the border of the Russian-occupied peninsula, negotiations can be opened to discuss the issue. However, Sybiha emphasised that the possibility of the liberation of Crimea by the Ukrainian army has not been excluded.
Crimea remains a thorny issue. During the April peace talks the Ukrainian side suggested a ceasefire and a discussion over the status of the Donbas that included the possibility of creating an autonomous region within Ukraine’s borders that would in effect hand de facto control to Russia, but maintain Donbas as being under Ukraine’s sovereignty.
At the same time, Kyiv suggested kicking the issue of the status of Crimea down the road, with a possible eventual referendum on its status sometime in the future.
The Kremlin indicated it was open to this solution and the deal was very nearly done. As reported by bne IntelliNews, the deal failed in the end after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson travelled to Kyiv a few days later and said that the West would not support any peace deal with Russia.
Sybiha’s comments bring new hope that
a peace deal may be struck this year, and relief to Western officials, who have been sceptical about Ukraine’s ability to reclaim the peninsula, which has been heavily fortified by Russia.
Western officials worry that any military attempt to recapture the peninsula could escalate the war and possibly result in a nuclear exchange. Under Russia’s nuclear strategy, the Kremlin is entitled to resort
Both sides are widely expected to launch spring offensives in the coming months.
Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate could face resistance at home, as the polls show the population is adamantly opposed to conceding territory to Russia to bring the war to an end.
A recent poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
“Western officials worry that any military attempt to recapture the peninsula could escalate the war and possibly result in a nuclear exchange”
to nuclear weapons in case there is an “existential threat” to Russia’s sovereignty. As the Kremlin has long seen Crimea
as part of Russia, its capture by Ukraine would be classed as an existential threat.
Mykhailo Podolyak, another adviser to Zelenskiy, revealed that Ukrainian forces would be on Crimea’s doorstep in “five to seven months”.
in February and March showed that 87% of Ukrainians considered any territorial concessions for the sake of peace unacceptable, the FT reported.
Only 9% would agree to concessions if they meant lasting peace. The poll found that 64% of Ukrainians want the country to attempt to retake all of its territory, including Crimea, even if there is a risk
Kyiv willing to start peace talks with Russia if its forces reach Crimea, an advisor to President Zelenskiy says
www.bne.eu