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74 Opinion bne May 2023 Is war between Iran and Azerbaijan
out of the question? Fuad Shahbazov
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran have grown rather raw recently in the wake of Baku’s inauguration of
its first-ever embassy in Israel. Of course, diplomatic relations between the neighbours have steadily become more and more inflamed and embittered for several years now, with Iran concerned at the declining influence in the South Caucasus it has suffered since the second Karabakh war between Azerbaijan, urged on by Turkey, and Armenia in late 2020. And with a normalisation of diplomatic ties between Tehran and Baku unlikely in the near future, the big question remains unanswered: Is it possible that the tensions could escalate into a large-scale regional conflict?
The war of words between the two countries was aggravated in October 2022 when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted large-scale military drills on
its border with Azerbaijan. Baku opted to refrain from responding to the exercises with comments that might antagonise Tehran. However, the situation became even more explosive when, in late January, an Iranian citizen armed
with a rifle burst into the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, and killed the building’s security chief and injured two of his colleagues.
Unsurprisingly, the incident triggered an outpouring of anti-Iranian sentiment in Azerbaijan and much international condemnation. Yet things continue to escalate. Last week ended with Azerbaijan expelling four employees of Iran’s Baku embassy for “activities... incompatible with diplomatic status” and arresting six men, allegedly linked to the Iranian secret services, whose aim was said by Azerbaijani officials
to be setting up "a 'resistance squad' aimed at establishing a Shari'a state in Azerbaijan through armed unrest and the violent overthrow of Azerbaijan's constitutional order".
The real worry is that – despite April 8 bringing a phone conversation between the countries’ top diplomats to discuss “problems and misunderstandings” – Azerbaijan and Iran are now fast descending to the point of no return in their ruptured relations. Neither side shows signs of budging in the standoff. Iran is deeply uneasy at the regional geopolitical eventualities that stemm from the 2020 war over Karabakh. They have significantly limited Tehran’s room for manoeuvre. The military victory strengthened Azerbaijan’s ties with Turkey and Iran's arch-enemy Israel, which, like Turkey, provides Baku with the arms that make all the difference in its fight with Armenia, such as kamikaze and other combat drones.
Iranian-Azerbaijani population centres in northwestern Iran. / VoA
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