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bne November 2020
Poland consumed some 18.6bn cubic
metres of gas last year, while it produced some 4.1 bcm domestically. A further 9 bcm was supplied by Gazprom, while the remainder was met with 3.4 bcm of LNG imports and 2.5 bcm via interconnectors with Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Poland’s long-term contract for Russian gas is due to expire at the end of 2022, and state gas supplier PGNiG does not
that will provide Poland with some 10 bcm of gas annually. A final investment decision (FID) on the project was taken in 2018, and early construction work is underway.
Poland also intends to enlarge its Swinoujscie LNG import terminal to take an extra 3.3 bcm per year of gas beginning in 2023, and build a second, 4.5 bcm per year terminal in Gdansk by 2026-2027. Baltic Pipe alone could be enough for Poland to cut its Russian gas supplies to
Central Europe I 39 pipelaying vessels on standby in northern
Europe to finish the job, but it is unclear whether they have the capability to do
so without international assistance. Looming over the project, a bill is making its way through US Congress that would impose even tougher sanctions.
Russian authorities say Nord Stream 2 will be ready to flow gas in early 2021. But Gazprom is stuck in a ship-or-pay contract with Ukraine until the end of 2024, meaning it will have to pay to deliver at least 40 bcm per year of gas through the country between 2021 and 2024, regardless of how much it actually sends. This will limit how much gas it is feasible for the company to supply via Nord Stream 2.
Then there is the EU regulatory headache. Nord Stream 2 will have to comply with the bloc's energy law following a court ruling last year, which could require Gazprom to provide third-party access to its capacity. It is unclear how Russia could ensure this without breaking up Gazprom’s monopoly over pipeline exports.
Lastly, Germany's support for the pipeline could crumble, not only in light of the recent assassination attempt on Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, but more significantly because of rising antipathy towards fossil fuels. Rather than derail the drive towards cleaner energy, the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has prompted governments to set more ambitious targets than ever before. This could lead Berlin to rethink its position on extra gas import capacity.
“Poland’s long-term contract for Russian gas is due to expire at the end of 2022, and state gas supplier PGNiG does not intend to extend it”
intend to extend it. While Poland would still be able to make spot purchases from Gazprom after the contract’s expiry, its government has insisted it will not take any Russian gas at all.
“If we are talking about full diversification of gas supplies to Poland, we are talking about Poland’s full gas independence from Russia; this is the milestone on the way towards the independence,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said earlier this year.
To break gas ties with Russia, Poland has a raft of projects underway that will greatly expand its gas import capacity over the coming years. It plans to launch Baltic Pipe in October 2022, a pipeline from Norway
zero as early as 2023, and the government wants to resell any surplus LNG it imports to Ukraine and its other neighbours.
Greater obstacles
The prospect of potentially having
to pay a large fine in a few years will undermine Gazprom’s share price performance and its credit rating. But UOKiK’s actions alone will have little impact on progress at Nord Stream 2. Even so, the project faces significant other obstacles to its completion.
The pipeline’s offshore section reached 94% completion in December last
year before the US imposed sanctions, forcing Swiss pipelayer Allseas to
halt construction. Russia has its own
bne:Tech
Contents
Top stories
Russia’s top retail and tech companies join forces to hunt for innovations in the rest of the world 2 Ukraine-born startups raised more
than half a billion dollars in 2019 4 Russian video streaming platforms
gain speed 5 Cloud services take off in Russia 6 SEMrush to SEO success 8
Leaders 9
Russia’s internet giant Yandex
announces growing and more
diversified revenues in 2019 10 Russian telecom major Rostelecom misses on earnings in 4Q19, cash
flow solid 12
Investment 13
World Bank approves $35mn project
to modernise Kyrgyz tax administration and statistical system 13 Romanian online home decoration
retailer raises €3.5mn in bonds 14 Russian billionaires Abramovich, Gutseriev, said to invest in Telegram
crypto project TON 14 Russian fund Da Vinci Capital gets
€30mn from Germany’s DEG to invest
in Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan 15
Fintech & E-commerce 16
Russian e-commerce major
Wildberries to add self-employed
vendor products to offering 16 Russian Dixy retailer to launch online sales with Ozon 17 Valuation of Sistema’s e-commerce
asset Ozon boosted to $1.8bn 17
Telecom 19
Makedonski Telekom’s net profit
up 6% y/y in 2019 19 Romanian telco Digi grows by double
digit rates in 2019 19 Russia could postpone 5G rollout
from 2022 to 2024 20
NIBs 21
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Russia’s top retail and tech companies
join forces to hunt for innovations in
the rest of the world
BAs Russia’s retail and tech sectors consolidate, the leading companies are turned their gaze outwards to hunt for
bne:Tech
new technology and innovation.
See page 2
Ukraine-born startups raised more
than half a billion dollars in 2019
In 2019, the venture capital and private equity funding volume for Ukrainian and Ukrainian-founded tech startups reached $544mn (up from $323mn in 2018 and $265mn in 2017), says AVentures Capital’s latest industry report ”DealBook of Ukraine”,
reports Adrien Henni of Ukraine Digital News. See page 4
www.bne.eu