Page 50 - RusRPTJul23

the end of 2021, Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said on June 20. “Today, our economy is already very close to returning to the level of economic activity seen at the end of 2021. We say we should recover to our potential,” she said.
Russia's economic trends in May were positive across various sectors, according to Rosstat’s recent data release for May. They showed growth in agricultural output, metals production, freight railcar output, and more as the initial shock of sanctions wears off and the economy starts to enjoy a boost from war time production.
Indeed, the Russian economic performance in the last few months has been so strong that in its latest report, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said it was worried that the economy may be overheating, or at least there was a danger it could overheat.
In April, Russia's agricultural output experienced a significant rise of 3.2%, partly due to an all-time record harvest in 2022.
The metals industry, a key sector in Russia, recorded a notable increase of 4.8% in output during April and is bolstered by the fact that it is one of less sanctioned sectors.
The share of loss-making firms in Russia has also declined to 31.4% in the first quarter of the year, according to Rostat. Profitability improved and financial stability among businesses operating in various sectors improved as growth drove businesses forward. This result was matched by the rising PMI indicator that has been rising for 13 straight months.
Transport has also been lifted as goods have to travel further to Far Eastern markets after much of Europe closed its door on Russia. Freight railcar output witnessed a substantial rise of 18% in April.
Russia's annual inflation has temporarily fallen to a record low of 2.41% as of the latest data, although the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) expects inflation to finish the year at 5-8%.
Other sectors that experienced positive growth include fertiliser output, coal production, industrial output, gasoline production, retail sales, real wages, and car output, some of these, like cars, doing well on the low base effects from last year’s sanctions shock.
Industrial production in particular switched from a 5.1% y/y contraction a in March when the war started to a 7.4% gain in April as the low base effects wear off. Real incomes have also benefit and gone back into the black thanks to the dramatic fall in inflation since the state of this year.
50 RUSSIA Country Report July 2023 www.intellinews.com