Page 61 - RusRPTJul23

gradually rising inflationary pressures, the Bank of Russia holds open the prospect of increasing the key rate at its next meetings to stabilise inflation close to 4% in 2024 and further on.
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors will hold its next rate review meeting on 21 July 2023. The press release on the Bank of Russia Board decision and the medium-term forecast are to be published at 13:30 Moscow time.”
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Russian inflation saw a slight increase, reaching 2.5% y/y in May, and it is expected to surpass the central bank's target of 4% in the coming months. Given the significant upside inflation risks and the hawkish stance of the central bank,
Capital Economics anticipate a 50 basis point interest rate hike to 8.00% by the end of the year.
The May inflation figure aligned with both the consensus forecast of 2.4% y/y and Capital Economics’ projection of 2.6% y/y. This followed a decline in inflation to a three-year low of 2.3% y/y in April, with prices rising 0.3% month-on-month.
61 RUSSIA Country Report July 2023 www.intellinews.com