Page 4 - IRANRptAug22

1.0 Executive summary
Iran’s economic growth recorded 5.7% in the third quarter of the current Iranian calendar year (September 23 – December 21, 2021), according to a report by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) on March 14. Iran’s economy has continued to rebound despite US sanctions still levied on it through local production and a boost in exports thanks to high oil and gas prices in the global market.
The CBI’s report said that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $13.4bn in the three-month period, showing 5.7% growth compared to last year’s corresponding period. The report put the country’s overall economic growth in the nine months to December 21, 2021 at 4.1%.
This would mean Iran has emerged from the long and bitter three-year recession that set in around May 2018 following then US president Donald Trump’s reintroduction of heavy sanctions on Tehran. Officials have credited higher exports and a general realignment of the economy, necessitated by the impact of heavy US sanctions, with securing the new growth.
Iran has responded favourably to the proposal of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, to resume the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), and it seeks to complete negotiations as soon as possible, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said on July 31. Earlier, Borrell said he had presented his text of the proposal to renew the JCPOA, which he considers the best possible deal suitable for execution in a last-minute attempt to revive the deal and get parties around the table.
The talks between Iran and the US have been deadlocked since March and ended without an agreement. Tehran's insistence that Washington remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a state entity, from its Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list is thought to be the key obstacle preventing Iran and the US from sealing an agreement. The latest round of negotiations on the JCPOA took place in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on June 29-30.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine conflict has reportedly resulted in a surprising surge of trade flows from Europe to the East and South via Iran, which saw Iranian goods transit increase 52% in March and creates something of a political quandary for both the European Union and United States, as Iran, like Russia is also under significant US sanctions.
With sanctions still in place in an effort at keeping Iranian oil off world markets, Iran has been relying on China turning a blind eye to American demands to import substantial amounts of Iran’s crude on the grey market. Iran's oil export volume is running at a level 40% higher than was seen a year ago, according to the National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC).
Iran's gas export earnings for the first four months of the Persian calendar year (March 21 to July 21) reached nearly $4bn, higher by 580% y/y, the semi-official ISNA news agency quoted Oil Minister Javad Owji as saying on July 27. The Islamic Republic has expanded gas output significantly at South Pars in recent years and supplies are estimated to flow at an average of 850-950mn cubic metres per day, topping out at 1bn cubic metres.
4 IRAN Country Report August 2022 www.intellinews.com