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According to Krutoy, the target scenario was initially based on an oil price assumption of $70 per barrel, but the assumption was eventually reduced to $65 per barrel, BelaPAN news agency reported on August 29.
He added that the forecast estimates "fully take into account" the negative consequences of Russia’s so-called tax manoeuvre for Belarus, even though it has been agreed with Russian authorities that mechanisms of compensating Belarus for its losses from the tax manoeuvre will be negotiated before the end of this year.
The tax manoeuvre shifts the tax burden from export duty on oil and petroleum products to mineral extraction tax (MET) on oil production. It envisages a gradual reduction in the rate of export duty on oil and petroleum products from 30 % to zero in the period from 2019 to 2024 and a proportionate increase in MET.
According to the Belarusian authorities, Belarus’ budget revenue losses from the tax manoeuvre in 2019 alone are estimated at BYN600mn ($300mn).
9 BELARUS Country Report October 2018 www.intellinews.com