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bne July 2024 Cover story I 35
also discussed at the recent Swiss peace summit held on June 16-17.
Putin has also offered to revive talks on the basis of the Istanbul peace deal on several occasions that could have ended the war in April 2022, but was shot down after former UK British Prime Minister Boris Johnson refused to extend Western security guarantees that are a core part of the agreement.
On the day before the Swiss peace summit Putin again offered a ceasefire that freezes the conflict along the current lines but on the harshest of terms that take into account “the realities on the ground.” In effect, the called for Ukraine’s capitulation and to concede of all the territory Russia has taken in the last two years and more.
His terms include pulling out Ukrainian troops from the four regions Russian annexed last year, which it doesn’t even completely control. He also demanded that Kyiv drop its bid for Nato membership reaffirm its commitment to neutrality, a non-aligned and non-nuclear status that should be enshrined in the Constitution.
Putin repeated the suggestion during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Almaty on July 4. "The Istanbul agreements remain on the table and can be used as a basis for the continuation of these [ceasefire] negotiations."
But the two men are probably talking at cross-purposes. Zelenskiy is referring
to the fact that Ukraine didn’t negotiate directly with Russia in Istanbul, but via intermediaries such as Turkey and the UN, whereas Putin is simply demanding Ukraine’s surrender.
The timing is important, as it appears that Zelenskiy is buying time to see where Ukraine stands by the autumn.
A freezing cold and dark winter looms for the Ukrainian population and it is still waiting for the weapons promised by the new US $61bn aid package to arrive; and of course for the wild card of a Trump presidency to be played. If any or all of these go wrong Zelenskiy’s hand may be forced.
In addition to Trump’s animus towards Ukraine is now the growing pro-Russia block forming in the EU that is also pushing for an end to the conflict.
The anti-Russia EU elite was bolstered by the re-appointment of Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission President for another five years and Estonian president and ultra Russia- hawk Kaja Kallas as the head of EU foreign policy, but the lurch to the right in the European Parliament has boosted the Russia-appeasers block.
Orban is famously friendly with Putin, being the only EU leader to have met him personally since the war started over two years ago. But this month he has created a more formal block by allying with leaders in Czechia, Slovakia and Austria, and the new right-wing MEPs about to join parliament are also typically softer on Moscow.
The pro-Putin block in the EU is on course to gain another advocate that will further undermine European support for Ukraine after the French overwhelming voted for far-right politician Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the first round of the French general elections on June 31, which Putin must see as a victory for Russia.
Le Pen’s political career has been part funded by Russian money and her party only paid back a €6mn 2014 Kremlin loan last autumn ahead of the European elections. Le Pen had advocated for close ties with Russia, although she has distanced herself from Putin since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The lack of materiel
The politics are starting to stack up against Zelenskiy, but he has serious practical problems too. Ukraine faces the problem of three Ms: the chronic lack of men, money and material. None of these problems can be easily solved.
On the battlefield the fighting has reached a stalemate again, despite Russia taking the initiative this spring after it intensified its missile barrage in March, when Ukraine ran out of air defence ammunition. Ammunition
is starting arrive again, but a huge amount of damage has been done in the meantime, raising the question of whether Ukraine can get through the coming winter.
The World Bank said this month that Ukraine can expect dark and freezing winters for at least the next two years, as it will be impossible to repair enough power stations before the heating season starts in November. The country is already blighted with rolling blackouts and could face up to 20 hours of power outages a day this winter, according to the most pessimistic forecasts.
On the battlefield Russia has innovated and taken the lead in the drone war, but more recently has gone a step further with the introduction of massive FAB glide bombs that are wreaking havoc on Ukraine’s defences.
Drones typically carry between 5-50kg of explosive and can take out tanks
and troops, but the first FAB glide bombs were essentially large Soviet- era gravity bombs with wings strapped onto them carrying 250kg of explosive. Only a few months later and Russia has just introduced massive 3,000kg of explosive glide bombs that are almost impossible to shoot down. Zelenskiy said on July 1 that Russia has fired over 800 of the FAB glide bombs in just the last month, which fortunately only have a 50-100km range and so their use is limited to the front line. The bombs are a low-tech solution, but they give Russia a decisive advantage, as it has thousands of them in Soviet-era stockpiles.
During the pause between Ukraine’s highly successful Kharkiv counter- offensive in the autumn of 2022 and Kyiv’s failed counter-offensive in the summer of 2023, Russia invested heavily in building strong defences. However, in the last nine months Ukraine has failed to follow suit and has constructed weak defences, say experts, that offer little protection against the FAB glide bombs.
The only reason Russia has made such slow progress on the battlefield is because Ukraine has been mass
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