Page 81 - bne magazine July 2022_20220704

bne July 2022
Opinion 81
Accession isn’t working
Dusan Reljic, head of the Brussels office at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), went further in his criticism of western policy towards the aspiring EU members.
“The policy of the EU and US is evidently not functioning. My firm belief is that the structure of the political and economic relationship between the EU and the region is producing divergence, not convergence,” said Reljic.
“My impression is that in socio economic terms, we are witnessing the creation of a new Berlin Wall around the non-EU states in Southeast Europe.”
Reljic argued that taking together structural, cohesion and post-COVID recovery funds, the EU member states in the region are set to receive 11 times more grant and loan funding than the Western Balkans counties. “We see the revolution in EU fiscal policy in response to the pandemic as a huge missed opportunity for the Western Balkans,” he said.
Moreover, the lack of economic convergence – on top of the waning hopes for a future within the EU – is contributing to the massive emigration from the Western Balkans.
“In the last quarter century about one quarter of the population migrated to the EU,” said Reljic. “When the population in the region are thinking of the future, and coming to the conclusion there is no promise that the future will be better than the past, they are doing the only obvious thing: migrating outward ... the chief problem
of the region is the loss of human capital.”
New approaches needed
Hannes Swoboda, president of wiiw and the International Institute for Peace and a former MEP, argued that more money has to be spent on the region, saying the neglect
of the aspiring EU members is “not justified”.
“If we don’t come to a new concept of engagement and
see visible, clear steps forward, I see more chaos, more disappointment, more turning away of citizens from the EU,” he said. “The EU must give the region a framework where they can slowly integrate into the EU. Otherwise more money may be spent, but will not have the effect we want, integration of the region into the EU.”
Ranka Miljenovic, executive director of the European Policy Center (CEP) in Belgrade, took a slightly more optimistic tone, saying she sees some form of staged accession as
a way to unblock the enlargement process. She discussed the option of a four-stage accession process, an idea outlined by CEP in collaboration with the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
An essential part of this would be that “access to the EU budget should be conditioned with the reforms – intuitional reforms and in the rule of law area”.
Changed geopolitical context
The war in Ukraine has deepened concerns about potential destabilisation in the Western Balkans, while it has led Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to formally apply for EU accession. There have long been warnings that if the EU fails in the Western Balkans, it will create room for rival powers – such as Russia – in the region.
“If the EU does not show stronger support for the Western Balkans, that opens space that could be taken by other countries,” said Jovanovic. “The war in Ukraine is reinforcing our arguments: if you want to prevent Russia from interfering, the EU must show stronger support.”
The discussion took place just days after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was supposed to visit Belgrade – a visit that had to be cancelled after Serbia’s neighbours closed their airspace.
Meanwhile, as disillusionment grows in the Western Balkans about the prospects for EU accession, three states – Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia – took matters into their own hands with the launch of the Open Balkan initiative. Open Balkan had its latest summit in Ohrid on June 7 and 8. The initiative – so far joined by only three of the six countries –
is intended to facilitate free movement of goods and labour within the region with the aim of stimulating the regional economy.
The third significant development of the week was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ tour of the region, as the June 23 EU Council meeting approaches. Scholz sought to encourage Bulgaria to lift its veto on North Macedonia’s EU accession talks, while also stressing the importance of normalising relations between Serbia and Kosovo. However, so far the indications are not promising that there will be any kind of breakthrough this month.
The EU Council members are also due to decide on whether to give candidate status to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova
– and further down the line, there will be different political problems to be resolved with the three Eastern Partnership states as parts of all their territories are occupied by Russia or Russia-backed separatists.
That being the case, under current procedures it’s hard to see what the EU can offer either to the Western Balkan states that have been long in the waiting room or to the new applicants that will have an immediate and concrete positive impact. Accordingly, alternatives that will still bring the non-members from Southeast Europe, Eastern Europe and the Caucasus closer to the EU fold are now being considered.
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