Page 107 - RusRPTOct23

August 2022 ($74.73 per barrel). North Sea Dated oil price in August 2023 was $86.20 .
● Trade, tankers & pipes
Russia mulls almost complete diesel exports ban. Russia plans to cut diesel exports from its key western ports almost entirely next month after the government banned its sale abroad to curb rising domestic prices. The cut in Russian supplies threatens to further tighten the global diesel market, which is already tight, and jeopardize supplies of the fuel used in industry and automobiles. Diesel prices in Europe have soared. Futures jumped to $1,012.75 per metric ton. Russia is the world's largest exporter of diesel fuel. The premium to the price of crude oil also rose.
Scientists investigating the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines have revealed key new details of explosions linked to the event, which remains unsolved on its first anniversary. Researchers in Norway shared with the Guardian seismic evidence of the four explosions, becoming the first national body to publicly confirm the second two detonations, as well as revealing a detailed timeline of events. The recently discovered additional explosions took place in an area north-east of the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm about seven seconds and 16 seconds after the two previously known detonations.
Der Spiegel, which recreated the yacht Andromeda’s journey, quoted investigators as saying the evidence all pointed at Kyiv’s involvement. There is debate, however, over whether a small crew of divers operating from a pleasure yacht would have been capable of carrying out the difficult, deep and slow dives necessary to place the explosives.
Russia is successfully bypassing the G7 oil price cap and boosting its export revenues. In August, almost 75% of all seaborne oil shipments from Russia were carried out without Western insurance, compared to about 50% this spring. The rise means Russia is increasingly adapting to circumvent the G7 oil price cap of $60 a barrel. This allows Russia to sell more oil at prices close to international market prices and deals a blow to Western attempts to limit Russia's oil revenues, which comprise the bulk of the Kremlin's budget. It is noted that although the Russian oil sector is still facing severe problems, the figures suggest that the Russian military budget will receive more revenue from oil. According to FT, the steady rise in crude oil prices since July to more than $95 per barrel, combined with discounts on its oil, will lead to the Kremlin's oil revenues likely to be at least $15B more than planned in 2023.
The ban on the export of commercial gasoline and diesel fuel from Russia on September 21 immediately raised exchange prices for diesel in Europe by 5%, on ICE the spread between crude oil and diesel fuel increased to $37, and in Singapore - by 2.7%, to $30. But these are still not the values that could be expected from a decision that removes 1 million b/d of petroleum
107 RUSSIA Country Report October 2023 www.intellinews.com