Page 113 - RusRPTOct23

But he added that, as far as he was aware, as yet neither the operators of Azerbaijan's main gas fields nor the operators of the three pipelines which carry the gas from Azerbaijan to European markets had received confirmation that the gas actually has a market in Europe.
"I'm not quite sure whether the European market is ready to receive more gas on a long-term basis from TANAP. " he said, explaining that he had discussed the issue many times with Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR which is a partner in all the country's gas fields and in the three transit pipelines that carry the gas to Europe.
"On the European side, I don't think they are giving a full-fledged long-term commitment for the off-taking of this additional gas. Without this commitment, I don't think the expansion is possible," he added, explaining that without commitments to purchase the extra gas, even the companies operating Azerbaijan's gas fields won't be able to invest to expand production to the extent needed to produce that extra gas.
The EU has no alternatives to replace the 8% of its gas that is received from Russia. According to European Commissioner Kadri Simson, if consumption is reduced, the EU will save another 65 billion cubic meters by March 2024, but it will not be possible to reduce gas consumption by another 15%, as was achieved last year. Both industry and the population have almost exhausted the possibilities for further savings. In the first half of 2023, gas demand in the EU fell by 30 billion cubic meters. Thus, for Simson's predictions to become a reality, Europeans must save in the coldest months, no less than last year's winter, which had record-high temperatures. So far, the European Copernicus Center is predicting above-normal temperatures in October and generally mild weather in Western Europe until the end of December. But it is still unknown what the weather will be like in the traditionally cold months of January and February. The EU has announced its intention to completely abandon the purchase of fossil fuels in Russia by 2027. He admitted that it will be impossible to do without Russian hydrocarbons in the next three to four years.
EU gas reserves have reached an absolute record on August 31, and pipeline supplies from Russia continue at maximum capacity. Gas volumes in the EU have risen to their highest level ever and continue to grow, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The current inventory level has reached 92.65%, 12% higher than the average for these exact dates over the past five years. Several countries are still behind the 90% benchmark, which must be reached before the start of the withdrawal season. France, Romania, and last year's outsider Latvia are accumulating gas supplies. At the same time, European terminals for receiving LNG in July worked with an average 56% productivity; since the beginning of August, loading has been
113 RUSSIA Country Report October 2023 www.intellinews.com