Page 46 - RusRPTOct23

The Russian government expects that the country's economy in 2024-2026 will grow at a fairly high rate, about 2.2-2.3% per annum. This is according to the data contained in the files related to the draft federal budget. "When preparing the draft of the new three-year budget, the government proceeded from the forecast of maintaining relatively high growth rates of the Russian economy (2.3-2.2% in 2024-2026)," the document says.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has improved its outlook for Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 to a 0.8% rise from the previous expectation of a 1.5% decline, as seen by PRIME in the organization’s report for September on September 20.
The Russian government expects a steady rise in oil export prices over the next three years despite energy sanctions imposed by Western countries and their allies, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg.
According to the macroeconomic forecast to 2026 presented to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Friday, the government sees the average price of a barrel this year at $62.70 per barrel.
Those barrels may trade at an average of $66.30 next year, $67.90 in 2025 and $69.80 in 2026, the documents say. The estimate for 2026 is an 11% jump from that for 2023.
In order to stabilise the market, the country has committed to limiting oil production until 2024. However, production is projected to increase to 530mn tonnes in 2025 and 540mn tonnes in 2026.
Crude oil exports will drop to 240mn tonnes in 2024 from 247mn tonnes this year. And then, according to the documents, exports should recover to 247mn tonnes in 2025 and 257mn tonnes in 2026.
Continued interest rate hikes in major economies mean global economic growth is likely to slow next year after beating expectations in 2023. According to a set of forecasts by consultancy Consensus Economics, output growth will be 2.1% in 2024, down from the 2.4% expected this year. According to Simon Macadam, senior global economist at Capital Economics, part of the slowdown in 2024 will be due to "some basic arithmetic effects" where the increased output this year will result in a leveling off of growth next year.
Goldman Sachs has published a forecast of global GDP for 2050. China, the US and India will remain in the lead. The fastest growing Asian economies in the 2050s will be India (3.1% per year), Bangladesh (3.0% per year) and the Philippines (3.5% per year). China, on the other hand, will grow by an average of only 1.1% per year. The US economy will also grow at a slow 1.4% per year. And Russia supposedly may even drop out of the top ten largest economies.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
46 RUSSIA Country Report October 2023 www.intellinews.com