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will depend on the ruble-US dollar exchange rate, with a 0% rate if the dollar is worth less than 80 rubles. The “temporary measure” will be in place from October 1 until the end of 2024.
At the same time, the government proposed re-establishing the “budget rule” for oil and gas revenues in 2024 with a cut-off oil price of $60 per barrel, over which the surplus is added to reserves. This year, the government worked with a baseline revenue of 8 trillion rubles ($82.9bn), thus the proposal reflects growing confidence about next year’s energy exports.
The flexible duty, once again, looks like a panicked reaction to a growing fiscal deficit with a short-term focus rather than a carefully designed fiscal policy. Exporters of several products—including metals and coal—are already suffering from discounts and higher transportation costs due to Russia’s forced pivot to Asia. This measure is likely to further reduce profit margins and discourage private investments. Food producers have also complained that the new duties will make their foreign sales unprofitable and may even lead to the production of certain items that are specifically grown for export.
Russia’s tax revenues for the treasury amounted to 29.4 trillion rubles ($305.2bn) in the first eight months of this year, which is 9% higher than in the same period last year, Head of the Federal Tax Service Daniil Egorov said.
Non-oil and gas revenues rose by 12%, or by 2 trillion rubles ($20.7bn), in the reporting period, with their share in Russia’s total tax revenues having reached 80% by now, Egorov added.
70 RUSSIA Country Report October 2023 www.intellinews.com