Page 18 - Caucasus Outlook 2024

Real GDP (% yoy) 0.2 7.5 5.2 7.6 -7.6 5.8 12.6
Industrial output (% yoy) 16.6 5.6 7.9 0.0 3.7 8.7
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 17.6 17.7 19.0 18.8 20.2 12.7 12.5
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy)
Producer prices (avg, % yoy)
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 3.7 -0.1 -1.1 3.0 7.2 8.6
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy)
General budget balance (% of GDP) -5.5 -4.8 -1.6 -0.8 -5.1 -4.5 -2.2
Public debt (% of GDP) 51.4 58.4 51.0 50.0 64.0
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -1.5 -6.9 -7.2 -3.1 -3.5 0.8
Official FX reserves (EUR bn)
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 94.4 91.3 87.6 90.3 102.3 99.9 76.2
EUR/LC (avg) 531.9 545.1 570.6 537.9 558.4 597.3 422
USD/LC (avg) 480.5 482.7 483.0 480.4 489.0 504.4 391 Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
2.2.1 GDP growth
Armenia’s Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank forecast a 7% growth in
Armenia’s GDP for 2023.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects 7% growth in Armenia’s economy in 2023 and 5% in 2024. Possible changes in the forecast and actual growth were mentioned due to economic and geopolitical factors.
IMF also expects inflation in Armenia to reach 3.5% in 2023 and accelerate to 4% in 2024. The Armenian government’s and the central bank’s inflation projection for 2023 is 4%.
According to Armenia’s Statistical Committee, the economic activity index in the country in the 10 months of 2023 stood at 14.9%.
18 Central Asia & Caucasus Outlook 2021 www.intellinews.com