Page 39 - Caucasus Outlook 2024

billion, mainly directed towards infrastructure initiatives, while the European Investment Bank (EIB) holds the third position with a credit of $1 billion.
Looking forward to 2024, the budget outlines an anticipated increase in new foreign debt, reaching GEL1.83 billion, reflecting a reduction of GEL43 million compared to 2023.
The forthcoming year will see the Georgian government securing a majority of its financial support from international financial institutions, with allocated funds earmarked for crucial infrastructure projects such as the North-South highway and the East-West transport corridor.
4.2 Budget and debt - Armenia
The budget for 2024 projects economic growth at 5.6%, with a target of reaching 7%, which requires additional private investment and increased export volumes. Therefore, there are certain risks that economic growth in 2024 may be lower than forecast. The government's consumer price index forecasts are quite close to the central bank. Inflation is expected to be 0.4% at the end of 2023 and is projected to accelerate to 4.0% by the end of the following year.
Based on the budget forecasts, growth is expected in all sectors of the economy in 2023 and 2024, including industry, which has seen a decline in current year indicators, and agriculture, which has experienced low growth. Specifically, the industry experienced a 0.5% decline in January-October 2023 compared to 2018, indicating a worsening trend in the growth rate since the beginning of the year. The budget predicts growth in the industry sector for both 2023 and 2024, based on certain conditions. However, no definite measures to promote industry direction are included. In 2023, construction and services show progressive growth compared to other sectors, but this growth will slow down somewhat in 2024.
4.3 Budget and debt - Azerbaijan
The outlook for Azerbaijan's budget and debt in 2023 is generally positive, with a combination of strong revenue growth, fiscal discipline, and a decreasing debt burden.
Azerbaijan’s state budget for 2024 forecasts a deficit of AZN2.59bn, equating to 2.2% of GDP. The state budget for 2024 anticipates revenues of AZN34.173bn and expenditures of AZN36.763bn. These projections are based on an assumed average oil price of $60 per barrel.
A significant portion of the 2024 state budget revenue, amounting to
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