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FSUOGM POLICY FSUOGM
West mulls sanctions on Turkey if Ankara-Moscow ties cross line
TURKEY
Erdogan is anxious to obtain every advnatage he can for economically imperilled Turkey ahead of elections.
WESTERN capitals are more and more alarmed by the deepening ties between Turkey’s presi- dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, raising the prospect of punitive retaliation against Ankara if it assists Russia in avoiding sanctions, according to the Finan- cial Times [paywall], which cited six Western officials.
The officials reportedly stated that they were concerned about the commitment made by the Turkish and Russian leaders to increase trade and energy cooperation after the two held talks that lasted four hours in Russian Black Sea resort Sochi on August 5.
One EU official was reported as saying the 27-member bloc was monitoring Turkish-Rus- sian relations “more and more closely”. A senior Western official was quoted as suggesting coun- tries could appeal to their companies and banks to withdraw from Turkey if Erdogan went ahead with intentions he outlined after the meeting with Putin.
There’s no doubt that Erdogan, anxious to obtain every advantage he can for economically imperilled Turkey ahead of elections that must be held within the next 11 months, is testing the limits when it comes to working around Ukraine war sanctions on Russia. bne IntelliNews reported on August 4 how Turkish press reports describe Turkey’s port warehouses as packed full with goods bound for Russia.
The FT pointed out that even without an EU agreement to take action against Turkey assisting Russia in circumventing sanctons, some individ- ual member states of the bloc could take action. “For example, they could ask for restrictions on trade finance or ask the large financial compa- nies to reduce finance to Turkish companies,” one official was reported as saying, adding: “I would not rule out any negative actions [if ] Tur- keygetstooclosetoRussia.”
The talk of potential retaliation against Nato member Turkey come after Ukraine intercepted a document from Moscow that outlines meth- ods to assist Russia in evading sanctions through Turkish banks, according to a Ukrainian intelli- gence official and a western diplomat referred to by the UK financial daily.
Washington has several times warned that it will target countries that help Russia to evade sanctions with “secondary sanctions”. US deputy secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo met Turkish officials and Istanbul bankers in June. He cautioned them not to allow boltholes for illicit Russian assets.
Commitments agreed upon in Sochi were
largely described in vague terms by Russian and Turkish officials. Putin and Erdogan, according to a joint statement put out after their meeting, agreed to boost cooperation in the transport, agriculture, finance and con- struction industries. Offering a little more detail on some financial cooperation, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters after the talks that Russia and Turkey would move to partial payment in rubles for Russian gas deliveries as the countries con- tinued with a gradual shift toward settlement in national currencies. He didn’t, however, indicate how much of what he stated was 26bn cubic metres of gas sent yearly to Turkey would be paid for in rubles.
Another specific deal should see Ankara making it possible in the near future for Rus- sian Mir payment cards to be used in Turkey. Bloomberg reported that five Turkish banks were set to adopt the Russian payment system.
Prior to the meeting, Erdogan said in com- ments broadcast on Turkish television: “Our meeting will be completed and open a very dif- ferent page in Turkey-Russia relations.”
There are observers who speculate that the meeting dealt with plenty more than was pub- licly discussed by Russian officials such as Novak after it concluded.
A Ukrainian government report outlined by the Washington Post said prior to the talks that Putin would seek Russian stakes in Turkish oil refineries, terminals and reser- voirs in a bid to disguise the origin of Rus- sian oil exports in advance of a planned EU oil embargo on Moscow. The newspaper also said that Russia could pursue correspondent accounts for large Russian banks looking to circumvent sanctions.
The Russian government made no comment onthereportandtherewasnooutwardsignthat Turkey would consider such proposals.
Other claims that the two leaders planned to discuss more than their economic cooperation were sparked by Russian journalists noting that Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader who has sent forces under his command to the conflicts in both Syria and Ukraine, was in attendance in Sochi.
The fact that Turkey, a Nato member, has not sanctioned Russia over events in Ukraine con- tinues to frustrate some partners in the West, yet, as always, Ankara knows it has a unique strategic position at the crossroads of Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and will make every effort to exploit it. ™
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 32 11•August•2022