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58 I Eurasia bne July 2020
Arms sales to Central Asia (by value in USD)
conflicts in Afghanistan. The borders
of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and China intersect, making China’s presence in Tajikistan seemingly a matter related
to China’s Xinjiang concerns rather than a case of a regional military buildup.
An expert from the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies (RISS), Ivetta Frolova, appeared to uphold this view on China in a recent interview with the Central Asia Analytical Network.
“Today, the Chinese leadership faces
a number of tasks that need to be addressed taking into account the peculiarities of internal socio-economic development and the promotion of projects within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative,” Frolova said. “These difficulties are exacerbated due to the situation caused by the spread of coronavirus, in which the whole world
is currently enveloped. Therefore, China will have to resolve many more problems before developing strategic plans to build up its military-political presence
in any region of the world, especially in such a complex one as Central Asia.”
“It is another matter when the urgent needs within [China itself] do not
leave Beijing any choice but to share
[a stake in] the efforts of the interna- tional community in ensuring regional security,” she continued. “Therefore, QCCM is called upon to contribute to the stable development of the region and
to the process of peaceful settlement in Afghanistan along with such organisa- tions as the SCO and the CSTO.”
The issue of China's growing Central Asian presence appears to be viewed exclusively through the lens of Russia losing ground as China strengthens.
Yet just as China is expanding away from its role as a solely economic leader in the region, Russia also finds itself extending its presence into Central Asian economies.
Russia’s handling of Uzbekistan
This can be seen in Russia’s handling of Uzbekistan, which has been attempting to open itself up to foreign investment. Russia’s courting of Uzbekistan covers a range of sectors,
Percentage of Arms Imports (In Dollar Terms) 2014-2018
Military Exercises in Central Asia 2004-2019
a three-way Tajik-Chinese-Afghan bor- der, establishing a “counter-terrorism centre”. The move by China was suppos- edly aimed at ensuring security against ethnic Uighur militants who have been leaving China to join extremist groups such as the Afghanistan-based Turkistan Islamic Party.
Joint military exercises
In August 2019, China held joint military exercises with Kyrgyzstan in China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
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which borders Kyrgyzstan and with Tajikistan at the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, an autonomous zone within Tajikistan.
Many observers in Russia do not appear to see China’s expansion as
a sign of major aspirations to expand military influence over Central
Asia, since much of China’s military cooperation is directed at its concerns over potential Islamic terrorism in Xinjiang and its connection to ongoing