Page 12 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

government officials, will likely focus on ensuring continuity in governance. Personnel policy is likely to lean towards further radicalisation, characterised by the appointment of younger, more assertive officials. These appointees are likely to be more explicitly anti-American and have a deep commitment to pro-war activities.
In recent months there has been considerable speculation about the weakening positions of Sergey Kiriyenko and Mikhail Mishustin, as well as the improving prospects of Maxim Oreshkin, Putin’s economic aide, and Andrey Turchak, secretary of the General Council of United Russia.
Presidential candidates
The number of contenders for presidential nomination in Russia’s upcoming election has reached 29, Central Election Commission (CEC) chairperson Ella Pamfilova said at a commission meeting on December 23. Under Russia’s law on the presidential election, self-nominated candidates must secure the support of a group of voters, informing the CEC of the group’s meeting in advance and submitting paperwork to the commission by December 27. Political parties have the right to nominate their candidates at congresses; party candidates must submit paperwork by January 1.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is of course running and is almost certain to win. The issue for Putin is not the victory – Putin remains genuinely popular and would win a free and open vote – but the percentages achieved.
The highest voter turnout was recorded in 1991 (74.66%) and the lowest in 2008 (64.38%). The highest percentage of votes cast for the winning candidate was recorded in 2018: 76.69% for Vladimir Putin. Umar Dzhabrailov received the least number of votes in 2000 (0.10%).
Putin’s constituency is not the people, but the elite. His high ratings insulate him from a palace coup, or rather, low ratings would make him vulnerable to
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