Page 20 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

BRICS+ and geopolitics
Plans have been made to hold the next BRICS summit in Kazan in October 2024 as part of Putin’s strategy to build up non-aligned multinational organisations that include Global South countries but exclude Western powers
This strategy saw some success when six new countries were added to BRICS at a summit in August to become the BRICS+. More countries are expected to be added at the Kazan summit, which has the double appeal of returning to Russia as Putin can’t travel due to an international arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Putin was unable to attend the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa due to the threat of arrest.
The inaugural BRIC summit was held in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg in June 2009. South Africa joined in 2010, transforming the organisation into BRICS.
The other big global south event will be the G20 summit to be held in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already invited Putin to the event but as Brazil is a member of the ICC, he said that it is up to Putin to decide if he wants to come and face possible arrest.
At the 2023 G20 summit, hosted by India, the organisation was massively expanded after the African Union, which represents all 54 countries of Africa, was made a permanent member. The leading Western powers are also members of the G20 and attended the Indian event, while both China and Russia chose to stay away.
The G20 is currently dominated by India, which has taken a softer line than either China or Russia and wants to make the body a facilitator of global trade and economic prosperity, whereas both Beijing and Moscow see these non-aligned bodies as weapons to be used in their clash with the West.
The Global South community is still divided over which stance to take with the West: cooperative or combinative. India continues to enjoy good relations with the West, despite the fact it has opted out of G7 oil price sanctions cap regime to buy cheap Russian oil, whereas countries like Iran, which is also under US sanctions, has fully backed the Sino-Russian alliance that has taken a more aggressive stance. Many countries in Latin America and Africa are still sitting on the fence. 2024 will see this issue develop further.
Putin and political party popularity ratings
One out of every two Russians wishes for the war in Ukraine to end in 2024, according to survey results from the Russian Field polling agency published December 29. When asked what they wish for Russians in the New
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