Page 60 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

Exports of Russian goods surged to $41.2bn against $17.1bn during the same time last year. Russian imports from India reached $2.6bn, a 50% increase. Russia is currently among India’s top five trading partners in terms of goods turnover.
The substantial growth in bilateral trade came amid the ‘Pivot to Asia’ Moscow has pursued as a result of the sanctions placed on Russia by the West over the conflict in Ukraine. The loss of traditional Western trade partners has forced Russia to seek out new markets, especially for its energy exports. In September alone, India’s imports of Russian oil surged by 80% y/y to an average of 1.56mn barrels per day (bpd).
India has also increased purchases of Russian diamonds, having bought gems worth $886.5mn in the reporting period, a 26% y/y increase. In contrast, the EU has just banned the import of Russian diamonds, a move that especially affects major EU diamond processing and sales houses in Belgium. That trade can be expected to relocate to Dubai and Bombay. Russia is one of the world’s largest diamond producers, while cities such as Antwerp used to be the global hubs. Belgium dropped to fifth place in global diamond imports in 2022, with just slightly over 10% of the total market, and in the face of the EU ban can be expected to further decline. The trade is now shifting as new wealth creation in Asia begins to affect the trends as opposed to declining wealth in Europe.
Trade turnover between Russia and China rose by 29.5% in January-September 2023 y/y to $176.4bn, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) of China reported. In September trade turnover between Russia and China amounted to $21.1bn. China’s exports to Russia reached $9.6bn, while supplies from Russia to China totalled $11.5bn. Russia mainly delivers energy resources, metals, timber, agriculture products and seafood to China, while China supplies passenger cars and trucks, appliance electronics, excavators, microprocessor units, apparel, footwear and consumer goods to Russia.
• 3.2 Current account dynamics
The current account surplus for 9M23 amounted to $41bn, which is
$155bn lower than the figure for 9M22.
In September, due to an increase in exports of goods, as well as a decrease in imports of services, the trade current account surplus came close to $10bn, which is the highest monthly figure since the beginning of 2023.
An important factor in the observed dynamics was the decrease in the volume of dividends accrued by Russian companies in favour of non-residents, which supported the balance of primary and secondary income in 3Q23. At the same time, the CBR improved its assessment of the current account for July-August (by almost $5bn in total), both by increasing export estimates and reducing import estimates. Taking this into account, we do not rule out that the estimate for September will be adjusted upward later.
60 Russia OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com