Page 81 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

• 5.9 Tourism
Passenger traffic from Russia to European tourism destinations doubled in 2023 to 2mn visits but remains five times less than the 10mn trips made pre-COVID, The Bell reported on December 18.
The holiday-happy Russians are back on the road and growth forecasts for 2024 are for a further recovery in the number of trips, according to reports from Kommersant.
Eurostat data indicate that passenger transport within the EU more than doubled in 2022, from 374mn to 820mn, rebounding from the pandemic-hit year of 2021. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts further growth of approximately 20% in 2023. Notably, trips from Russia to Europe are expected to surpass the overall dynamics, reflecting a robust rebound in travel.
The significant increase is partly attributed to the low base of 2022, which experienced a considerable decline in tourism due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions-related factors. Estimates suggest a tenfold decrease in tourism to Europe in 2022, dropping to 1mn people from the pre-pandemic level of 10mn in 2019.
Dmitry Gorin, vice president of the Russian Union of Tourism Industry, told the Russian daily that the number of tourist trips to the EU in 2023 saw a substantial increase of 15-30% y/y, totalling approximately 2mn people. However, this remains fivefold less than the pre-pandemic peak. Other estimates put the number of trips higher, including transit traffic through the popular transit cities of Istanbul, Yerevan and Tbilisi that suggest the actual number of trips to Europe were 4mn-5mn passengers.
Italian destinations witnessed the largest surge in demand for flights, with popular choices including France, Spain, Greece, Austria, Hungary and Cyprus. Yandex Travel data revealed a three- to fivefold increase in demand for hotels in Italy and France compared to the previous year's low base. The average cost of a night in a hotel decreased by 45%, reaching RUB7,700 ($86), as Russians count their kopeks more carefully.
Despite the challenges of the past year, Russians demonstrated adaptability to increased travel costs, and foreign air carriers expanded their presence in the Russian market. Moreover, Schengen visas continued to be issued to Russians, with statistics from SchengenVisaInfo showing that in 2022, Russians applied for 687,000 Schengen visas with only a 10% refusal rate. In 2023, 17 out of 27 EU countries issued visas to Russians.
Looking ahead, experts anticipate a further increase in passenger traffic to Europe from Russia by 20-30% in 2024 if the current trends and conditions persist.
81 Russia OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com