Page 84 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

“Confidence stemmed from planned investment in new products and machinery. The level of positive sentiment was historically elevated despite dropping to a three-month low,” said S&P Global.
6.0 Budget & Debt
• 6.1 Federal budget
Russia’s budget deficit widened more than expected last year, as oil and gas revenues fell by almost a quarter and the Kremlin increased spending amid its war in Ukraine.
The fiscal gap reached RUB3.2 trillion ($36.1bn), or 1.9% of GDP, Finance Ministry data shows. That is RUB300bn higher than both the budget target and the late-December estimate of Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
Predictions for the budget varied widely over the year. At the start of 2023 the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) predicted a 2% of GDP budget of RUB2.9 trillion. However, after revenues collapsed following the twin EU oil embargoes in December and February, analysts are predicting a deficit of at least 3-4% or more.
MinFin stuck to its estimate of 2%, saying oil revenues would recover in the second half of the year. And they recovered so strongly that MinFin improved its forecast for the deficit to 1% of GDP in the last quarter.
The poor performance of the oil sector in the final months, and the heavy spending that always happens in December – the government usually makes up to 20% of it annual expenditure in December alone – means the end result
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