Page 92 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

2023, although some energy revenue of the budget will be spent to replace internal borrowing this year. “The amount (of contribution) will exceed RUB1 trillion; our estimates show that it would amount to about RUB1.2 trillion. That is why this year the National Wealth Fund will grow thanks to the favourable circumstances in spite of the fact that we will use a part of the oil and gas revenue to replace the sources of borrowing,” he said.
• 6.2 Debt
There is some confusion over how big Russia’s debt is, with estimates ranging from 14% to 18%; nevertheless, the level of debt in Russia remains very low, even if it was starting to rise slowly in 2023.
Russia’s sovereign debt should climb to 21.2% of GDP in 2023 from 18.9% in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on October 11. In 2024, the debt should grow to 21.8% of GDP, and then start falling gradually to 18.2% in 2028.
So far, the government has partly covered its financing needs from the National Wealth Fund, which has limited the impact of the latest deficit on public debt. As the government aims to reinstate the temporarily abandoned fiscal rule, which requires saving a part of oil revenues in the Wealth Fund, public debt is set to increase in the coming years, reaching 16% of GDP by 2025, according to the EU forecasts.
According to Russia’s Audit Chamber, Russia’s debt amounted to 14.9% of GDP in 2022. The Finance Ministry expects it to rise to 17.6% in 2023, while the draft federal budget puts debt at 18.1% in 2024, 18.8% in 2025 and 19.8% in 2026.
Russia’s external debt as of October 1, 2023 reached $329.5bn, which is 14.1% (or $54.1bn) lower than the figure at the beginning of 2023, the CBR said.
"The significant decrease in government debt is due to a decline in the dollar equivalent of liabilities as the national currency weakens against the US dollar, as well as a decline in the volume of Russian sovereign securities held by non-residents, including as a result of their planned repayment," the regulator said.
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