Page 99 - Russia OUTLOOK 2024

Russia still ranked first among oil suppliers to the People’s Republic of China in 10M23, followed by Saudi Arabia (with 73.37mn tonnes of oil worth $45.55bn supplied) and Iraq (48.85mn tonnes worth $29.23bn). Moscow supplied almost 19% of China’s total oil imports in 10M23. Saudi Arabia accounted for 14% of supplies, while Malaysia accounted for around 11% of deliveries.
In 2022, China’s imports of Russian oil grew by 8.2% to 86.2mn tonnes in physical terms, and by around 43.9% to $58.37bn in value terms, according to China’s customs service.
Russia has been India’s top oil supplier for a year, having supplied 36% of the country’s total imports in September, up from about 2% before the war, according to OPEC.
India saved approximately $2.7bn in the first nine months of 2023 by importing discounted Russian oil, Reuters reported on November 8, citing government data.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia each provided 20% of supplies to India. The country’s total oil imports slipped by 4% in September compared with August to 4.3mn bpd, reaching this year’s lowest level.
Russia delivered a historical record of 207,400 tonnes of crude to Brazil
worth $133mn in October, the Brazilian statistics service said on November 10. Brazil resumed the purchases from Russia in September after a two-year pause. In October Russia was the third largest supplier of oil to Brazil after the US and Guyana.
OPEC+ production cuts
Eight members of OPEC+ decided to announce further additional cuts totalling almost 2.2mn bpd for 1Q24 on November 30. However, this figure includes the rollover of Saudi Arabia’s current additional voluntary cut of 1mn bpd, as well as Russia’s export cut of 500,000 bpd in 2023.
In December six OPEC+ members agreed to an additional 700,000 bpd worth of voluntary crude production cuts in the first quarter of next year, while Saudi Arabia said it would extend its existing 1mn bpd cut over the same period it had agreed on December 1. Russia agreed to cut 300,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2024 to support prices.
ING’s balance sheet shows that December’s additional voluntary cuts ensure that the marginal surplus that had been forecast for 1Q24 will be erased, and in fact we now see a small deficit.
But oil market sentiment turned decidedly bearish in November and early December as non-OPEC+ supply strength coincided with slowing global oil demand growth. Russian crude export prices declined sharply in November, with Urals falling below the $60 per barrel price cap on 6 December.
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