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January 25, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 10
Russia recovery pushes Belarus’ growth to 3% in 2019
bne IntelliNews
Belarus' GDP grew by 3% year-on-year in 2018, according to the national statistics agency Belstat.
The Belarusian economy has been recovering well on the back of the ongoing recovery in neighbouring Russia, the post-Soviet country's main trade partner. Belarus' GDP grew by 2.4% y/y in 2017 after two years of recession. It contracted 3.9% y/y in 2015 following 1.6% y/y growth in 2014.
In November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the lender forecasts a 3.5%-3.7% y/y growth in 2018. "Such an outlook is based on a number of factors: oil prices are higher than expected, prices for a number of export commodities are higher, external demand was
pretty good, [the] average salary grew at a fast pace," head of the IMF mission to Belarus Jacques Miniane said.
Meanwhile, recently, the Belarusian government was forced to revise downward its forecast for the country’s GDP growth in 2019 (from 4.5% y/y to 2.1% y/y). According to Belarusian officials, the new forecast takes into account recent changes in the external economic environment, including changes in oil prices and the economic situations of the country's major trading partners, specifi- cally Russia, and the values of their currencies.
The target scenario was initially based on an oil price assumption of $70 per barrel, but the assumption was eventually reduced to $65 per barrel.