Page 80 - bne monthly magazine June 2024 Russian Despair Index

80 I New Europe in Numbers bne June 2024
Poland GDP (seasonally adjusted), change y/y
Polish GDP growth eases to 1.3% y/y in Q1, flash estimate says
Polish GDP expanded 1.3% year on year in the first quarter, easing slightly versus a gain of 1.6% y/y in the preceding three months, seasonally adjusted data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) showed in a flash estimate on May 15.
“Economic growth in Poland is gradually recovering but low activity in the economies of Poland’s main trading partners, especially the ongoing recession in German industry, limits the scale of the recovery,” Bank Millennium said.
Romania’s CA balance flat y/y at €3.95bn in Q1
The current account (CA) of Romania remained roughly unchanged in nominal terms (€3.95bn) in the first quarter of the year (Q1) compared to the same period in 2023, according to data published by the National Bank of Romania (BNR).
The CA deficit in 12 months to March 2024 (€22.6bn) remained roughly constant compared to the end of 2023 and a significant 8% down from €24.7bn at the end of March 2023. The CA to GDP ratio dropped to 7.1% in 2023 from 9.1% in 2022 and is expected to further ease albeit at a slower rate over the coming years.
Russia ups budget revenues 50% in 4M24, deficit widens
The Russian federal budget posted revenue growth of 50% year on year to RUB11.7 trillion ($128bn) in 4M24, achieving a revenue growth rate of 41% y/y in April 2024 alone, according to preliminary data from the Finance Ministry and calculations of RBC business portal.
Spending was up by 21.5% y/y to RUB13.2 trillion in 4M24, up by 25% y/y in April alone, making a deficit of RUB1.48 trillion in 4M24. Despite halving y/y from RUB3 trillion seen in the same period of 2023, the deficit came close to the full-year target of RUB1.59 trillion as early as the end of April.
The deficit jumped from RUB607bn seen in the first quarter, even as the high oil prices maintained over 80% y/y growth.
Growth in Kazakhstan services sustained for second successive month, April PMI shows
Growth in Kazakhstan services was sustained for a second successive month in April, according to the latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey data on the sector from S&P Global, released on May 6.
The survey’s seasonally adjusted business activity index posted above the neutral 50.0 mark at 50.7 for April, down from 51.0 in March.
Source: GUS
Romania: CA balance rolling 12M, monthly (€mn)
Russian budget (cumulative RUB bn)
Source: Russian MinFin
S&P Global Kazakhstan Services PMI Business Activity Index
sa, >50 = growth since previous month
Source: S&P Global
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