Page 49 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

4.2 Budget and debt - Baltic states
In Lithuania budget revenue is expected to grow by 9.4% to €17 billion, and expenditure is estimated to increase by 7.9% to €20.5 billion, the finance ministry has said. The budget deficit is projected to reach 2.9% in 2024, and the government debt will amount to 39.8% of GDP.
In 2024, Latvia’s government deficit is projected to decrease slightly to 3.1% of GDP. Latvia’s state budget revenue for 2024 is planned to be €14.5 billion and expenditure in the amount of €16.2 billion. Compared to the budget for 2023, in 2024 the planned state budget revenue is €1.763 billion higher. In 2024 the State budget expenditure is intended to be €1.538 billion higher than in 2023.
General government, which covers the entire structure of state and local government, as well as social security institutions, is planned to raise a total of €17.8 billion in revenue and €19.1 billion in expenditure. The general government deficit in 2024 is projected at 2.8% of GDP, and general government debt at 41% of GDP. Both the deficit and the debt will be below the reference values set by the EU's fiscal rules – 3% for the deficit and 60% for the debt.
Estonia’s state budget in 2024 will be €16.8 billion in revenue and €17.7 billion in expenditure. Revenues will be 7.7% more than in 2023, while spending will be 4.9% higher.
The structural deficit will be at 1.2% of GDP, while the nominal deficit will be 2.9% of GDP.
4.3 Budget and debt - Hungary
Despite three revisions of the budget, the 2023 deficit is likely to be larger than the latest 5.2% target, as tax revenues missed estimates and inflation-related spending boosted expenditure. The freezing of EU funds has also created a shortfall of €2bn-2.5bn as the government continued to pre-finance some projects from the budget. The economic contraction has led to a HUF1 trillion shortfall in VAT payments as households cut back spending.
Hungarian analysts claim that bringing the deficit below the Maastricht criteria would be the largest fiscal adjustment since 2012, assuming the positive scenario of a budget shortfall of 5.2% in 2023. All in all,
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