Page 53 - CE Outlook Regions 2024

Nasdaq is expected to be bearish in the first half of 2024, too, and the second half, although more robust, will still be less active than the pre-COVID and pre-Ukraine war trading.
As of December 28, 2023, a combined 1.108 million stock transactions have taken place on Nasdaq's Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius stock exchanges, including 1.037 million transactions on the Baltic Regulated market and 71,402 transactions on the alternative First North market, or Baltic multilateral trading facility (MTF).
The Baltic exchanges' trading asset turnover totalled more than €465.8 million.
In comparison, 2022 saw a combined 1.35 million stock transactions take place on the Nasdaq Baltic markets, with a combined turnover of more than €629.5 million.
Overall, however, the number of companies traded on the Baltic Main List to see their stocks go up in 2023 was outnumbered by those that went down – 23 to 12.
5.3 Markets - Hungary
Hungarian assets in all major classes posted big gains even as the economy fell into recession. The tight monetary policy of the MNB stabilised the forint, one of the worst emerging market currencies in 2022. The local currency was trading 5-6% stronger against the dollar and euro as the year drew to a close. The MNB’s cautious easing and commitment to keep real interest rates high is expected to continue to lend support to the forint, as will any inflow of EU funds and strong continued FDI. The central bank kept the rate at 18% until May as inflation was decelerating at a slow pace in Q1.
The forint has become a popular carry-trade currency. The narrowing of the interest rate premium should make the forint less attractive for speculative investments but betting against it will remain costly as the MNB is expected to offer hefty real interests above the projected end-of-year 6% in 2024. Due to its high indebtedness relative to regional peers and its open economy, Hungary’s economy remains vulnerable to negative changes in the external environment.
The 10-year benchmark Hungarian government bond was one of the best investments of the year as inflation came down from a 27-year high of 25.7% to 7.9% in November, and the MNB reduced rates
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