Page 19 - UKRRptAug23

Most Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced people still plan to return home. More than 75% of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) still hope to return home. However, the UN reported that only about 15% of them plan to do so soon, the UN reported. At the same time, 18% of refugees and 6% of IDPs are undecided about returning in the future. Also, 6% of refugees and 12% of IDPs report a lack of plans and hope for returning home. As the study emphasises, the intentions of refugees and IDPs are highly dependent on their security situation at home and the status of their housing, as well as their current socio-economic situation. The main obstacle to returning home is constant hostilities and related security risks, which are indicated by 90% of refugees and 95% of IDPs. However, there are additional obstacles. For 90% of refugees and 85% of IDPs, access to basic public services, livelihood and work, and housing in hometowns is also an important factor in their decision.
Ukraine needs its women refugees to come home soon. Most men aged 18 to 60 aren’t allowed to leave the country, which explains why 68% of Ukrainian refugees are women, with an even greater gender disparity among adults. According to Alexander Isakov of Bloomberg Economics, failure to persuade any of the 2.8mn working-age women to return would cost Ukraine 10% of its annual pre-war gross domestic product. That’s $20B a year in a worst-case scenario that would easily outweigh the EU’s proposed four-year aid package for Ukraine, worth an annual €12.5B ($13.9B). Even before the war, Ukraine’s weakest economic link was its demography, with a fertility rate of just 1.2, among the worst in Europe. Tens of thousands of killed soldiers and civilians, and even larger numbers injured or too traumatized for employment, will further reduce the number of consumers and workforce participants that are indispensable to Ukraine's recovery. The government has ambitious plans for post-war reconstruction, but the economy ministry says Ukraine is 4.5mn short of the number of workers and entrepreneurs needed to achieve that goal.
Ukraine's birth rate drops by 28%. The Ukrainian data analytics website Opendatabot has reported that in the first six months of 2023, the country's birth rate was 28% lower than the same period in 2021, the
19 UKRAINE Country Report August 2023 www.intellinews.com