Page 6 - UKRRptAug23

liquidity pressures on public finances.
Economic performance in 1H23 was well above beginning-of-the-year consensus estimates. Economic activity now seems to be settled at 74‒76% of the level of 2021, which was the last full, pre-war year. There are good reasons to expect this ratio will be maintained though to year-end, implying GDP growth of 5‒6% for full-2023. Recent agriculture statistics confirm this assessment. The sector was expected to be a significant drag on economic growth, but early harvesting statistics show grain and oilseeds output will be down by less than 10% Y/y, much better than the early-year estimate of a 15‒20% decline.
6 UKRAINE Country Report August 2023 www.intellinews.com