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that Naftogaz has no intentions of renewing the 2018 transit deal with Russia that is due to expire at the end of 2024. However, in the event that European companies require continued transit services, even amidst the EU's plans to phase out Russian natural gas by 2027, Naftogaz remains open to exploring “suitable solutions.”
2.6 Ukrainian birthrates could fall to lowest in world
Birthrates in Ukraine are se to fall to the lowest in the world, demographers in Ukraine the Wall Street Journal reported on September 25.
Even before the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine's birth rate was already one of the lowest in Europe, thanks to three decades of economic and political chaos that drovemns of workers abroad to find better paid work.
Now the situation is even worse following the start of the war last year as an estimated 6mn-8mn Ukrainians – 80% of the women – to flee the fighting. Military aged males were almost immediately banned from leaving the country after martial law was imposed.
Now birthrates have decline by 28% during the first half of 2023 when compared to the pre-war period, say demographers, marking the steepest drop since the country gained independence in 1991. Demographers are warning of the potential for the birthrate to become the world's lowest.
Oleksandr Gladun, a demographics expert from the Kyiv-based Ptoukha Institute for Demographic Studies, says in a worst-case scenario, Ukraine's population could dwindle to 30mn over the next two decades, a considerable decline from the official population count of 43mn before the invasion.
However, as Ukraine has not had a proper census for almost two decades the actual size of the population remains unsure. As some 3mn people were thought to have left as migrant workers before the war the actual size of the population before the war was thought to be as low as 38mn, according to some estimates. From that number up to another 8mn have left as refugees since the war bring the population number down further to some 30mn. And that is before the low birthrate effects kick in.
Separately, a UN study forecast that the Ukrainian population could fall to 20mn by 2030, a catastrophe from which the country’s population may never recover.
The decline in birth rates began in 2014 after Russia's occupation of Crimea, with annual births dropping by 12%. The situation worsened with Russia's war in 2022, bringing Ukraine's fertility rate to an estimated 1.2, nearly half of the replacement level required to maintain a stable population, which stands at 2.1 children per woman.
During the first half of 2023, Ukraine witnessed the birth of 96,755 children. Since 2013, the country's fertility rate has been decreasing at an annual rate of approximately 7%.
In early 2023, Ella Libanova, the director of the Ptoukha Institute, forecasted
14 UKRAINE Country Report October 2023 www.intellinews.com