Page 31 - UKRRptOct23

3.2 Macro outlook
The EBRD confirms its belief in moderate growth for Ukraine's economy in 2023-2024. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has maintained its May growth forecast for Ukraine's economy for 2023-2024. According to the bank, Ukraine's GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2023, reflecting a sharp decline in GDP in the first quarter compared to last year. However, this will likely be followed by a 3% increase in 2024. At the same time, the EBRD changed the forecast for the region where it operates (Central Europe and Central Asia). GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2023 from 3.3% in 2022. In 2024, as inflation continues to decline, growth is expected to increase to 3.2%. The May forecast for 2023 was revised upwards by 0.2%, and the forecast for the following year was revised downwards by 0.2%.
The return of refugees and investment should restore Ukraine's economy in four years. This opinion was expressed by Deputy Minister of Economy Oleksiy Sobolev. He added that the country's economy shrank by 30% in the first year of the war, and Ukraine should exceed this figure in four years. "We have two key prerequisites - security, joining NATO, and integration with the EU. In addition, the economy's growth is directly related to the return of refugees to Ukraine - the more people that return, the higher the economic growth indicators will be," he added. The official noted that when these millions of people return to the country, it will provide a key stimulus for economic growth. There are now several million Ukrainians abroad; for many, victory in the war is the primary requirement to return home. The deputy minister added that, in addition to internal efforts, Ukraine expects foreign institutional and private investments to enter the market and contribute to the economy's growth.
31 UKRAINE Country Report October 2023 www.intellinews.com