Page 6 - UKRRptOct23

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) maintains its outlook for moderate growth in Ukraine's economy for 2023-2024. It expects a 1% GDP growth in 2023, followed by a 3% increase in 2024. The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine has also revised its GDP forecast positively for 2023, projecting growth of over 3%. Nevertheless, the challenges of trade imbalances, increasing imports, and potential external economic influences persist.
Negotiations for Ukraine's accession to the EU are set to begin in December, offering opportunities for benefits even before full membership. The European Parliament's President, Roberta Metsola, emphasizes the importance of preparing for Ukraine's membership and acknowledges Ukraine's progress in implementing the European Commission's recommendations.
The US avoided a shutdown by sacrificing aid to Ukraine. Both houses of the US Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate, on the evening of September 30, supported a temporary budget resolution to finance federal spending for 45 days. The package does not contain new aid to Ukraine. T
However, Ukraine’s allies all promised that aid to Ukraine will not be cut off. The pentagon said it still has $5bn of funds left to aid Ukraine – enough for about six months. At the first Defence Forum in Kyiv at the end of September $100M investment from Baykar, 20 agreements with foreign partners, and the Alliance of Defence Industries. During the DFNC1 forum, representatives from Ukraine's military-industrial complex concluded 20 joint contracts with foreign partners to manufacture drones and to repair, and produce armoured vehicles and ammunition.
In particular, leading German weapons maker Rheinmetall has entered into a joint venture with Ukraine’s state-owned counterpart, the Ukraine Defence Industry group (UDI), to build facilities to make and repair weapons, Rheinmetall said on its website on September 29.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' ongoing offensive campaign is rapidly approaching a critical weather-related limitation, according to statements made by US Chief of Staff, Mark Milley on September 10. Milley emphasized that the current offensive operation has approximately 30 to 45 days of combat effectiveness remaining before adverse weather conditions begin to impede their maneuverability. The counteroffensive has gone very slowly with neither side recapturing any significant amont of territory.
More Ukrainians are willing to stay abroad and the situation with Ukrainian refugees is not improving. According to the Center for Economic Strategy, a more active state policy for the return of citizens is needed. Between 1.3mn and 3.3mn Ukrainians may remain abroad.
Ukraine is bound to experience depopulation, labour shortages, and declining population density, particularly in certain regions, according to Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies.
As of the beginning of this year, Ukraine's population in areas controlled by Ukrainian authorities stood at 31.6mn, with a slight increase since then. However, the Ptoukha Institute projections for 2033 estimate Ukraine's population within its 1991 borders to range between 26mn and 35mn.
6 UKRAINE Country Report October 2023 www.intellinews.com