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Russia exported a record 33.6mn tonnes (45.7bn cubic metres) of LNG to Europe in 2024, up 4% compared to 2023, according to Kpler, equivalent to a third of Russia’s pre-war exports of gas to Europe. And piped gas exports to Europe, largely to Hungary, Turkey and Slovakia, were up a hefty 20%.
More than half (52%) of Russian LNG exports went to the European market, which remains Russia’s most important market. China imported another 31 bcm via the Power of Siberia pipeline, more than doubling the volume of imports since the war in Ukraine started. The pipeline is designed to deliver up to 38 bcm of natural gas annually to China and a second Power of Siberia II will add another 50bcm if it is eventually built.
Discussions are also ongoing regarding a potential new route through Kazakhstan, capable of delivering up to 35 bcm annually. Russia reversed the flow of Soviet-era pipelines to Central Asia last year and is already sending about 5 bcm of gas to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
Despite the energy dearth, EU leaders are still calling for a ban on Russian imports of gas, a call repeated last week by German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz, who is widely expected to take over from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a February general election.
The Eu recently published a roadmap for abandoning Russian LNG by 2027 but remains the subject of intense debate as EU members are deeply divided on the issue.
The largest buyers of Russian LNG in the EU in 2024 were France (6.3mn tonnes), Spain (4.8mn tonnes), Belgium (4.4mn tonnes) and the Netherlands (1.3mn tonnes).
But this distorts the true picture of consumption: the same Germany, which banned the reception of gas carriers with Russian LNG at its terminals, imports gas through France. As a result, even now 3-9% of the gas consumed in Germany is of Russian origin. The total share of Russian LNG in EU imports approached 20% in 2024, up from 15% a year earlier.
The main buyers in Asia – China and Japan – overtook the European leaders only slightly, having received 7mn tonnes and 5.7mn tonnes respectively.
Two-thirds of the LNG for export (21.1mn tonnes) was shipped by the Russian company Novatek from its plant in the Yamal gas fields.
Russia's total share of the EU gas market, taking into account the cessation of pipeline gas supplies since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has fallen from 40% to 6%.
Ukraine eyes key role in Azerbaijani
gas transit to Europe
Fuad Shahbazov in Durham
Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could signifi- cantly alter the region’s energy landscape.
If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on Janu- ary 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices.
The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv's decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia.
The deal's expiration will force Slovakia to pay an extra €177mn in fees for alternative routes, while it triggered a humanitarian crisis in the breakaway Moldovan region
of Transnistria, which lost heating and hot water. As for Ukraine, the country will lose fees equivalent to about 0.5% of GDP from ending the transit contract and risks undermining its strategic role in Europe's energy sector.
This emboldened Kyiv to seek alternative ways of boosting its energy sector and address European concerns regarding the looming crisis. Ukraine’s strategic location offers an opportu- nity to facilitate energy diversification. In this vein, Ukraine approached Azerbaijan, a long-time fossil fuels exporter to Europe, with an offer to transport Azeri gas to Europe, thus partly replacing the Russian gas. Unlike the initial proposal to transit Russian gas under the "Azeri gas" brand, this time, Kyiv categorically refuses to transit any Russian gas, even under different brands.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the Davos Economic Forum on January 22, exchanging views on cooperation in the energy sector and regional security issues.
During the press conference, Zelenskiy enthusiastically empha- sised Azerbaijan's role in Europe's energy sector, mentioning that Baku’s export capacity is 25bn cubic metres (bcm).
Zelensky’s stance should come as a little surprise considering
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