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Two British minehunter ships destined for Ukraine will not be able to travel through Turkish waters, President Erdogan's Directorate of Communications announced on Jan. 2, citing an international pact.
Ukraine’s demographic resources do allow for recruiting 500,000 males
to the fighting units of its armed forces. Ukraine had 9,307,315 men aged 25-59 in 2022, according to the World Bank’s latest data.4 However, Russia had 34,619,913 men aged 25-59 that year, according to one of the bank’s databases.
Thus, if one doesn’t account for factors such as the number of Ukrainians and Russians who (a) were already serving in their countries’ armed forces; (b) had been killed or seriously injured in fighting since WB’s estimate; (c) were dodging the draft and/or had fled their countries;5 and (d) were unfit for service or eligible for other exemptions, then Russia in theory had 3.7 times more males in the 25-59 age cohort that it could draft than Ukraine could (so more than the 3:1 ratio generally required for offensives, ceteres parabuis).
If one narrows the age range to 25-49, then one finds that Russia had 26,366,551 such males in 2022, while Ukraine had 6,846,754. (So, again, Russia had more than the 3:1 ratio generally required for offensives.)
mobilised conscripts in Ukraine are to be paid 6,000 hryvnia ($157) per month in 2024. If they are deployed in the combat zone, but are not engaged in actual fighting, then they are to be paid 30,000 hryvnia ($784) a month. If they are involved in combat on the actual frontline, then they are to be paid 100,000 hryvnia ($2,616) a month, according to Ukrainian media.
Thus, if all 500,000 additional conscripts are actually sent to fight, then Ukraine will have to spend $15.7bn on salaries alone every year (unless casualties are not replaced).
One also needs to keep in mind that Ukraine will also have to spend sizeable sums to train, equip and feed each of the conscripts once they have reported for duty, as well as provide treatment to those injured and compensation to families of those that are killed.
Thus, Zelenskyy’s recent estimate that a mobilisation of 500,000 could cost $13bn is not unreasonable.6 In my view, a country counting on the West to plug this year’s projected budget deficit of $43bn and which has a defence budget of $46bn can hardly afford such a sum, unless its foreign donors decide to re-boost aid to Kyiv, perhaps, beyond 2023 levels, which is doubtful.
Baltic countries to build defences on Russian, Belarusian borders. The agreement signed by the defence ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania provides for defensive installations on their borders to deter and, if necessary, protect against military threats.
Ukraine destroyed the missile boat, "Ivanovets" of the Russian Federation’s Black Sea Fleet that was worth more than $60M. The enemy ship was on a raid of Lake Donuzlav in the temporarily occupied Crimea. It sank with up to 40 enemy sailors on it. The main armament of boats of this type is P-270 Moskit supersonic cruise missiles. They also have a 76 mm AK-176 gun mount and two 30 mm six-barreled AK-630 gun mounts. Igla MANPADS are also available. Also, on January 31, Crimea was attacked with
26 UKRAINE Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com