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fell to 5% by October 2023. For 2024, Ukraine had $41B in planned external financing, but the figure has since been revised to $37B. Moreover, from January to September 2023, tax collections increased by 23% compared to the same period in 2022. Despite wartime conditions, Ukraine has not yet experienced any issues with financing social benefits. In addition, the National Bank has demonstrated positive dynamics by reducing the discount rate from 16% to 15% in the last few months and issuing affordable loans for the Ukrainian population. Ukraine maintains a relatively open foreign exchange market with a floating exchange rate that remained relatively stable throughout 2023. Ukraine's international currency reserves are currently higher than ever, amounting to about $40B. It is noted that, far from the front line, everything operates normally and appears stable.
3.2 Macro outlook
At the end of October, the NBU improved its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2024 from 2.9% to 4.9%, and next year from 3.5% to 3.6%. However, in an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Deputy Governor of the National Bank Serhiy Nikolaychuk noted that it is highly likely that economic growth last year exceeded 5%.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November, the government improved its estimate of GDP growth in 2024 from 2.8% to 5%, but worsened it for 2024 from 5% to 4.6%.
The Ukraine government announced its economic forecasts for 2024. GDP growth is forecasted to grow by 4.6%. Compared to 2023, investment will grow by 29.6%. A 9% growth in the value of exported goods and services is expected, as well as a 5.9% increase in imports of goods and services. Last year, the defence
37 UKRAINE Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com