Page 67 - UKRRptFeb24

7.0 FX
Data Google sheets import from here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bMH5wBwqnIm_vgMxUi3yYkbBSPHhpqXBSJoylo7Fcko/edit#gid=1439190 079
Ukraine FX
May 2022
Jun 2022
Jul 2022
Aug 2022
Sept 2022
Oct 2022
Nov 2022
Dec 2022
Jan 2023
Feb 2023
Mar 2023
Apr 2023
May 2023
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
31.40
31.20
30.41
37.36
35.26
36.90
37.69
39.06
39.60
39.60
39.39
40.48
40.48
Currency (units per USD) (average)
29.69
29.54
31.52
36.92
36.71
36.21
36.85
36.86
36.76
36.76
36.81
36.85
36.83
source: NBU
What will the exchange rate be at the beginning of 2024? At the start of 2024, the average exchange rate of the dollar may be in the range of ₴37.90-₴38.40, and the average exchange rate of the euro ₴42.10-₴42.60, analysts from the Center of Exchange Technologies said. "If the NBU maintains the level of currency interventions at the level of previous weeks in the beginning of January, the Ukrainian currency will slow down or even stop its decline," experts noted. According to analysts, the hryvnia exchange rate will be affected by the following events: From domestic statistics, the report on Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves in December can be highlighted. Considering the large volume of currency interventions by the NBU in recent weeks, a significant reserve reduction is expected. This would have a negative impact on the hryvnia. Among external events, the most important is the publication of the Federal Reserve’s report on the US labor market for December. The last meeting of the American regulator was held in a very mild manner. This was a negative for the dollar.
The NBU reduced the net currency sale on the interbank by 29%. In January 2023, the net sale of currency by the National Bank amounted to $2.533B, which is 28.7% less than the December net sale volume, which was the highest in 2023 ($3.553B).I In January, the NBU bought $0.016B at the interbank and sold $2.549B.
The NBU predicts a 28% decrease in the outflow of currency from the country. Ukrainians who have gone abroad continue to generate a significant outflow of foreign currency, but in 2024 it is expected to decrease by 28% - from $18B in 2023 to $13B, said the National Bank. In comparison, in 2022 this outflow was almost $20B.
Ukraine is preparing for the second stage of currency liberalization. The head of the National Bank, Andriy Pishnyi, specified that he foresees an easing of trade financing and the possibility of paying interest on the obligations of Ukrainian issuers. At the same time, the easing of restrictions
67 UKRAINE Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com