Page 16 - IRANRptOct22

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
SRI reports Iranian growth of 3.8% in first Persian quarter, supreme leader outlines five-year plan
Iran’s recession ‘over as economy clocks 2020/2021 calendar year growth of 3.6%
Iran’s economy grew at a rate of 3.8% in the first quarter of the current Persian calendar year (March 21–June 21), state broadcaster IRIB has reported, citing data from the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI).
The economy appears to be making something of a recovery from the double shock of the coronavirus pandemic coming on top of the return of heavy US sanctions, stepped up against Tehran since mid-2018. Lighter enforcement of sanctions by the Biden administration could be one factor assisting the recovery. Bumper oil and gas prices fetched on ‘under the radar’ markets amid the growing energy crisis could be another. Expanding trade with neighbours including Russia could also be driving growth.
Manufacturing was the best performing sector in Iran during the assessed sector, recording growth of 4.2% y/y, the SCI said. Services grew 3.9% y/y, while agriculture contracted 0.8% y/y, it added.
Separately, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has outlined the general scope of the country's seventh five-year national development plan (2022-2026), IRIB reported on September 12.
The plan sets average annual economic growth of 8% as a target, with a focus on improving the efficiency of all production factors, including human resources, capital, technology and management.
Establishing stable prices for consumer goods and exchange rates, achieving inflation in the single digits and channelling liquidity and bank credit to productive sectors are also among main policy directions set out by the plan.
Transforming the country's tax system to make taxes the main source of government income is another goal.
The establishment of a comprehensive social security system, which includes assistance, support and insurance at basic, supplementary and additional levels for the provision of fair services, is another economic policy the executive authorities are required to pursue during the five years covered by the plan.
Iran’s economy grew by 3.6% in the 2020/2021 Persian calendar year (ended March 20), Akbar Komijani, lately appointed caretaker governor at the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), was cited as saying by Press TV.
If verified, it would mean Iran has emerged from the long and bitter recession that set in around May 2018 when former US president Donald Trump hit Tehran with renewed and intensified heavy sanctions.
Komijani was also reported as stating that Iranian GDP expanded in the Persian year fourth quarter by 7.7%. That was said to have followed two successive quarters of growth beginning late July 2020.
Iran’s economy, excluding oil revenues, expanded by 2.5% in the last Persian year while the oil sector itself grew by 11.2%, according to the details given by the acting central bank chief.
“This situation indicates that the Iranian economy’s GDP has been out of recession in
16 IRAN Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com