Page 4 - IRANRptOct22

1.0 Executive summary
Iran’s economy grew at a rate of 3.8% in the first quarter of the current Persian calendar year (March 21–June 21), state broadcaster IRIB has reported, citing data from the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI).
The economy appears to be making something of a recovery from the double shock of the coronavirus pandemic coming on top of the return of heavy US sanctions, stepped up against Tehran since mid-2018. Lighter enforcement of sanctions by the Biden administration could be one factor assisting the recovery. Bumper oil and gas prices fetched on ‘under the radar’ markets amid the growing energy crisis could be another. Expanding trade with neighbours including Russia could also be driving growth.
Manufacturing was the best performing sector in Iran during the assessed sector, recording growth of 4.2% y/y, the SCI said. Services grew 3.9% y/y, while agriculture contracted 0.8% y/y, it added.
Separately, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has outlined the general scope of the country's seventh five-year national development plan (2022-2026), IRIB reported on September 12.
The plan sets average annual economic growth of 8% as a target, with a focus on improving the efficiency of all production factors, including human resources, capital, technology and management.
The US on September 29 whacked Iran with a new round of petrochemical and petroleum sanctions.
Throughout several months when there appeared to be a real prospect of Tehran agreeing a path to the reinstatement of the nuclear deal, or JCPOA—which would curb Iran’s nuclear development programme in return for the lifting of sanctions—Washington appeared to somewhat relent on the enforcement of existing US sanctions applied to Iran’s oil, petrochemical and various other industries. However, the calculus has changed. Iran is stubbornly resisting a “final draft” of a European proposal for bringing back the JCPOA, while it has grown closer to Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters at Nato headquarters in Brussels on September 9 that Tehran's latest response in negotiations to restore the nuclear pact pushed the talks a step back. After 16 months of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington, the EU last month put forward a “final draft text” offer for reviving the JCPOA. On September 10, France, the UK and Germany said in a joint statement that they have "serious doubts as to Iran's intentions and commitment to a successful outcome on the JCPOA".
Iran's supreme leader has blamed the US and Israel for the protests that have swept the country for more than two weeks after Friday prayers on September 30 in Zahedan. In what were his first public comments on the unrest—which has morphed into anti-regime demonstrations, but was initially triggered by the uproar over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who fell into a coma and died after being detained by Tehran morality police for allegedly breaking the Islamic dress code by loosely wearing a hijab, or
4 IRAN Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com