Page 9 - IRANRptOct22

Co, Hong Kong-based Sierra Vista Trading Limited and UAE-based Virgo Marine.
Hong Kong-based Sophychem HK Limited and ML Holding Group Limited were designated for dealings with US-designated Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Commercial Company, said to have included the purchase of Iranian petrochemicals for shipment to China and Singapore.
2.3 Academic outlines five possible reasons why Russia swung behind efforts to revive Iran nuclear deal
Five possible reasons why Russia swung behind efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA, between Iran and the major powers have been outlined by an academic specialising in Iran’s economy, politics and the effects of terrorism and political unrest on financial markets.
Writing for The National Interest, Saeed Ghasseminejad—an associate fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and its Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance—noted how in late August, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s chief nuclear negotiator at the Vienna JCPOA talks, urged the US and Iran to “successfully overcome their last differences as soon as possible” in order to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
“This encouragement contrasts with Moscow’s position in March, when it called for the exemption of Russian-Iranian trade from international sanctions against Russia as part of a final atomic agreement. The Kremlin’s demand ground the talks to a halt,” he said.
According to Ghasseminejad, if the share of Iran’s oil exports to Europe relative to its total oil exports went back to its 2017 level—a prospect that would be realistic if US sanctions were lifted on Tehran in return for the Iranians curbing their nuclear development programme under a restored JCPOA—it would give Europe access to 800,000 barrels per day of newly arrived crude oil. “As a result, the [nuclear] deal [if revived] has the potential to decrease Russia’s leverage over the European Union and allow European countries to decouple themselves from Russian oil with less pain this winter,” observed the academic, adding: “In light of this reality, why has the Kremlin changed its tune on the nuclear deal?”
Ghasseminejad theorised that even if a revived JCPOA reduced Russia’s leverage over Europe, Moscow may benefit from the deal’s return in five ways, namely:
1. If Washington was to lift banking sanctions on Iran, Moscow could access the international financial network through Iran, a country with years of experience in sanctions-busting.
2. Sanctions relief in the JCPOA would enable a $10bn contract between Moscow and Tehran to build a nuclear site in Iran to proceed. And it would unlock financial resources with which Iran could pay Russia.
3. With the expired ‘sunset’ of the UN arms embargo against Tehran, Russia can now sell Tehran a wide array of conventional weapons perhaps worth billions of dollars. Again, removed sanctions and unlocked financial resources would help here.
9 IRAN Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com