Page 9 - bne OUTLOOK 2022 Ukraine

growth expectations in 2022 at 3.6%, and in 2023 3.4%. And JP Morgan sharply downgraded its forecast from 4.5% to 2.3% in 2021, while maintaining an expectation of 5% growth in 2022.
Ukraine’s economy will grow by 3.5% in both 2021 and 2022 spurred by rich grain harvests and high business activity, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said in an updated economic forecast.
JP Morgan is more optimistic about a recovery in 2022 which will see nominal GDP for 2021 at record $197bn, up from $123bn in 2019, and accelerating again in 2022 to $227bn.
JP Morgan analysts point out that the preliminary estimate of GDP growth in Ukraine in July-September of this year at 2.4% in annual terms announced by the State Statistics Service was disappointing, as the bank envisioned growth of 6.7% for this period, while the National Bank expected 4%, and the consensus forecast provided for 3.6%.
Scenario І
Indicator
Real GDP growth projection, y/y CPI change, y/y
$/UAHannual avg FX rate
Scenario ІІ
Indicator
Real GDP growth projection, y/y
CPI change, y/y
$/UAHannual avg FX rate
source: The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine
2020 2021
3.70% 3.80% 5.50% 5.3% UAH27.0 UAH27.2
2020 2021
4.80% 5.50% 5.80% 5.0% UAH24.8 UAH23.9
2022
4.10% 5.10% UAH27.5
2022
6.50% 5.00% UAH24.2
9 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2022
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