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sales, the figure went from 9% to 11%. At the same time, 40.5% of respondents plan to increase production in the next three to four months, while 5.3% plan to reduce it. 75% of enterprises are currently operating at almost or full capacity, but the recovery index for business activity decreased for the second month in a row - from 35% to 31%. The share of enterprises reporting an increase in exports declined from 23.9% to 21.2%, 17.9% of respondents reported decreased exports, and 60.9% of businesses reported no change.
Which enterprises have become the Ukrainian wholesale trade market’s leaders during the war? Almost half of the 10 most successful Ukrainian wholesalers are businesses that trade solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels alongside similar products, reported Opendatabot. In particular, Okko, WOG, West Petrol Market, and DTEK Trading, which trades in energy products, made it to the top ten. The list also includes businesses that sell tobacco (Tedis Ukraine and Philip Morris Sales and Distribution). Only two companies from the list sell food products: MHP (meat) and Kernel Trade (grain). Pharmaceutical company Optima Pharm and Metinvest-SMC were also included in the rating. Together, these businesses earned ₴458.95B last year. The top ten businesses in the wholesale industry have changed significantly since 2021. For example, two businesses specializing in wholesale grain trade dropped from the rating. One is Nibulon, with a 170% revenue decrease this year, and a significant part of their facilities and equipment are still under occupation. The combined income of the top 10 wholesale trade companies in 2022 decreased by 10% compared to 2021.
Which businesses in Ukraine have been most affected by the blockade of the Polish border? The European Business Association noted: "Among the EBA members, different businesses had a negative impact on their operations from the strike. These are retailers and heavy industry enterprises, manufacturers, importers and exporters of household goods, hygiene products, medicines, veterinary drugs, agrochemical products, etc." Perishable goods are at significant risk because, after weeks of downtime, these products simply cannot be sold, the business association clarified. In addition, it should not be forgotten that the indirect impact of the strike will be felt by many more companies, for example, those in the insurance industry. The EBA noted the possible shortage of goods: "According to our observations, there is currently no question of a shortage of goods, but this may change if the strike is prolonged." It is noted that there is a risk of a supply delay in imported goods, but now it is difficult to determine in what volumes and which goods will become in short supply and whether consumers will feel it.
In the period spanning 2000 to 2014, Ukrainian firms experienced a remarkable surge in M&A activity, peaking at 464 deals annually with a combined market value of €15.3 bn. However, the market faced a downturn post the first russian invasion in 2014 and hit a low in 2022 during the second invasion, with only 39 deals totalling €46.8 m. Despite the challenging landscape of 2022, which witnessed a mere 39 deals with an average value of €1.2 m, the Ukrainian M&A market exhibited resilience. The majority of these transactions involved Ukrainian acquirers (33), with 30 being entirely domestic. Foreign investment was nearly absent, and average deal values fell well below the long-term average. Nevertheless, the occurrence of any deals amid a full-scale russian invasion underscores Ukraine's business openness and forward-thinking stance. We anticipate that as the situation with russia is resolved, both deal numbers and transaction values will rebound to their long-term averages, heralding a post-war M&A resurgence.
48 UKRAINE Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com