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4.5.2 Nominal wages dynamics
A shortage of workers forces employers to invest in wages. The number of job vacancies in Ukraine's labor market has exceeded 100,000 for three months. This corresponds to the number of registered unemployed of 108,000. In October, HR analysts said that businesses tried to compete for job seekers by increasing salaries - the average increased by 3% to ₴18,000, HR analysts said. At the same time, according to State Statistics, the average salary in the second quarter of the year was ₴17,176, which is 25.2% more than the corresponding period last year. The Cabinet of Ministers, in the revised state budget project for 2024, has improved its forecast for Ukrainians’ salary growth. In 2023, the nominal salary will be ₴18,527, and adjusted for inflation (real) will increase by 10.1%. In 2024, the nominal salary will be ₴21,809, and the actual salary will increase by 8.5%. But, according to the NBU forecast, the average nominal salary will increase by 17.7% this year and the real salary by 3.9%. In 2024, growth is expected to be 15.8% and 6.9%, respectively; in 2025, it is expected to be 14% and 6.2%, respectively.
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine is bouncing back thanks to the stabilisation of the economy and low base effects, Ukrstat reported on September 26. (chart)
Retail has shown impressive growth over the first half of 2023, up by 7.3% January-June y/y.
In June of this year alone, there was a remarkable surge in retail turnover, recording a 23.3% increase compared to the previous June. Although slightly less than the figure for May, which saw a 24.3% increase, this continued growth reflects a healthy consumer market.
When analysing turnover from retail trade enterprises, which includes legal entities, a solid 4.9% increase was observed in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2022. This growth persisted into June 2023, registering at 19.1%, though slightly lower than May's figure of 20.7%.
In nominal terms, the retail trade turnover for January-June 2023 amounted to UAH820.9bn ($22.2bn), with retail trade enterprises contributing UAH553.6bn to this figure. It's important to note that these statistics do not account for territories temporarily occupied by Russia or regions affected by ongoing hostilities.
This growth in retail turnover stands in stark contrast to the previous year when Ukraine experienced a 21.4% decline in retail trade, emphasizing the significant strides made in revitalizing the country's retail sector.
51 UKRAINE Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com