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November 11, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 6
Where's Czechia heading? The plot thickens
who are refusing to be political bedfellows of a prime minister under investigation for an alleged EU subsidy fraud – the anti-politician Babis has won Czech President Milos Zeman's endorse- ment for at least two attempts at forming a mi- nority administration. But it's the cosy alliance developing between Kremlin-friendly Zeman and Babis – an incoming prime minister who has a big hole where his foreign policy should be – that has many observers on edge.
Geopolitical orientation may hinge on presidential election
The coming January presidential contest, in which the 73-year-old Zeman will run for a second term of office, could prove even more vital to Czechia's eastward or westward orientation than the late October general election that brought an Ano landslide.
Zeman has proved a severe embarrassment to the outgoing Social Democrat-led government, spout- ing Moscow's line at every turn, contradicting standpoints of the Czech foreign ministry. Wheth- er you see him as one of Russia's useful idiots or as a rather more sophisticated fellow, there is no doubt that the Kremlin is thrilled to have him on board. As Mark Galeotti, a senior research fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague, has it in Controlling Chaos: How Russia man- ages its political war in Europe, a report compiled for the European Council on Foreign Relations: “President Milos Zeman’s outspoken criticisms of Nato and the EU are gleefully repeated in Mos- cow’s propaganda campaigns throughout central Europe.”
Despised by Prague's “coffeehouse intellectu- als” but often cheered to the rafters out in the
provinces, as president, Zeman – a populist like Babis but coarser in his conduct – should consti- tutionally remain a ceremonial figure. Tradition- ally, however, the Czech president projects a heavy informal influence. Jakub Janda, deputy director of European Values, a Czech think tank, where he also runs the Kremlin Watch Programme, picks up on this point in an October 30 piece published by EUobserver prior to Babis's announcement that he is going for a minority government. “With Babis struggling to put together a coalition, the deal-breaker for the Czech Republic is if Zeman gets re-elected,” writes Janda. “If so, he would probably divide spheres of influence with Babis and take over Czech foreign policy. Czech politics has seen this before. Between 1998 and 2002, the two strongest political powers agreed on a divi- sion of influence without attacking each other – a deal which effectively crippled Czech democracy for several years.”
Adds Janda: “If Zeman were to lose to a pro- Atlantic challenger, it would probably moderate Babis on foreign and security policy. The real deci- sion on where Prague will turn will come in Janu- ary next year.”
That line of thought was given added weight
on October 3 when Czech daily Hospodarske
noviny reported Petr Fiala, leader of the centre- right and Atlanticist Civic Democrats (ODS), who came second in the election to win 25 of the lower house's 200 seats compared to Ano's 78, as say- ing no-one was even trying for a coalition and that Babis and Zeman have a power deal. He admitted that ODS would not even meet with Babis – also facing a second court fight in his country of birth Slovakia to clear his name of claims that he was an agent of the Czechoslovak-era Communist secret police (StB) while working as a top foreign trade official – but the implication was clear. The answer to the riddle of the next Czech government may well be sat in the Castle.
Custodians of a fragile democracy
So what of the hypothesis that a combination of Babis and Zeman as custodians of a fragile