Page 4 - IRANRptSep22

1.0 Executive summary
Iran’s economic growth recorded 5.7% in the third quarter of the current Iranian calendar year (September 23 – December 21, 2021), according to a report by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) on March 14. Iran’s economy has continued to rebound despite US sanctions still levied on it through local production and a boost in exports thanks to high oil and gas prices in the global market.
The CBI’s report said that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $13.4bn in the three-month period, showing 5.7% growth compared to last year’s corresponding period. The report put the country’s overall economic growth in the nine months to December 21, 2021 at 4.1%.
This would mean Iran has emerged from the long and bitter three-year recession that set in around May 2018 following then US president Donald Trump’s reintroduction of heavy sanctions on Tehran. Officials have credited higher exports and a general realignment of the economy, necessitated by the impact of heavy US sanctions, with securing the new growth.
Iran on August 31 claimed to have delivered a “peace initiative” for ending the Ukraine war to Russia. The proposal was said to have come from an unnamed European leader. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian announced the handing over of the initiative while standing next to Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov during a news conference in Moscow.
A growing number of media reports suggest Iran is looking to fill a ‘Russia-sized hole’ in oil sales to Europe if a new nuclear deal with the major powers can be struck. Iran's state oil producer would pursue customers in countries including Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey should economic sanctions be eased under a fresh nuclear accord.
A big attraction for the West in returning to the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) is that it would open up world markets to Iranian oil, meaning Tehran would have the potential to ease the crude oil supply stress increasingly felt by countries attempting to turn their backs on Russian oil in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Intercept on August 31 reported that in the US hawkish Democrats were ramping up a campaign against a possible restored JCPOA.
The talks between Iran and the US have been deadlocked since March and ended without an agreement. Tehran's insistence that Washington remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a state entity, from its Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list is thought to be the key obstacle preventing Iran and the US from sealing an agreement. Another concern of Iran is what economic guarantees Tehran will be given as a shield against the impact of a future US president withdrawing from the multilateral JCPOA.
The Ukraine conflict has reportedly resulted in a surprising surge of trade flows from Europe to the East and South via Iran, which saw Iranian goods transit increase 52% in March and creates something of a political
4 IRAN Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com