Page 107 - RusRPTJun20

non-payments, would not be a sectoral headache.
Russia’s global warming rate is 2.5 times higher than the world average,
Scientific Director of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Roman Vilfand informed on Mauy 14. "The [global warming] rate on the territory of our country is 2.5 times higher than the average increase in temperatures in the world. This is explained by a variety of factors," he said during an online conference in Moscow.
9.1.11 ​Metallurgy & mining sector news
Base & Precious Metals Watch for May 2020
• Nickel​. Ni-intensive stainless steel production in China continued outperforming. Ni ore supply fell in March; April might see the peak COVID-19 effect, with Chinese NPI output contracting commensurately, offsetting Indonesia gains. EV state support expanded. Nickel price remains 12% below 90th%ile.
• Copper​. March mine supply was mixed despite COVID-19, with gains in Chile and declines in Peru. The output decline might peak in April, with Peru relaxing output in May. Refined supply remains little affected. China demand drivers recovered, but remain negative, ex-China might see double-digit declines in 2Q20. Expect inventory build-up in coming months. The copper price is now above 90th%ile.
• Aluminium​. Chinese output was resilient at +2% y/y in March-April despite COVID-19. Profitability has improved on SHFE price outperformance and lower alumina and energy costs, so it might continue to surprise on the upside. US spot premia collapsed, while exchange stocks started to rise.
• Gold​. The mine production decline rate indeed accelerated in 1Q20, and might be maintained in 2Q20. The physical demand rout deepened in 1Q20 (to 24% y/y), dragged down by jewellery. ETF buying hit new records in April. Inflation expectations continue to hover near multi-year lows. Recovery of 10Y UST yields from lows might put the gold price under pressure.
• Palladium & platinum​. China car sales in April signaled a V-shape recovery pattern (+4% y/y vs. -80% in Feb), but US and Europe have yet to reach bottom with 50-80% y/y falls in April. New structural trends might arise in the auto industry post COVID-19. Jewellery sales failed to recover as quickly in China in April. Supply disruptions start to ease, but mine supply to contract double digits y/y in 1H20.
Although diamond miners managed to increase their output run-rate slightly in 1Q20 and still destock​, in April nearly all major parts of the diamond pipeline were shut, except the Chinese downstream, which enjoyed a rare situation when consumers were shopping at home. Despite the resumption of activity in the midstream in May, it is likely that the excess inventories accumulated prior to the April lockdown will require some period of destocking, even if demand recovers globally after COVID-19. At the moment, the short-term outlook for the whole market depends heavily on the pattern of Western countries’ downstream demand in the coming months. 1Q20
107​ RUSSIA Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com