Page 56 - RusRPTJun20

increases in export volumes in January-March included: coal (29.8%), wheat (11% to 7.3mnt), and ferrous metal (35.5%). Those that saw falls included:aluminium (34.1%), power (81%), and oil revenues (11% to $7bn).
Russia’s non-CIS imports contracted by 14.2% on the month to US $14.934bn in March​, the Federal Customs Service said on Tuesday citing preliminary data. In January–April, imports from the non-CIS countries fell 5.1% on the year to $62.562bn. In 2019, Russia’s non-CIS imports grew 2.1% to $216.58bn.
In April imports from non-CIS (far abroad) countries fell by 20% y/y to $15bn. ​In monthly terms the decrease was 13%, slightly better than the lows of the previous crisis (-16.3%). Machinery and equipment accounted for the major part of the decline (-15% mom, -9pp to overall m/m dynamics) due to the deterioration of investment demand in Russia. The largest companies have already announced capex cuts in RUB terms (in $ terms the cuts will be even bigger, at least 15-20%). At the same time, the national projects’ implementation and a restart of capital-intensive industries can partially offset the impact of capex cuts.
The only segment that supported the total figure was pharmaceutical imports (+30% mom, +1pp to m/m dynamics)​, which looks logical in times of the COVID-19 outbreak.
“Although imports are deducted from the GDP, the deterioration of the implied domestic demand has a larger weight in the economic growth. The Q1 2020 GDP growth figure came in relatively positive (+1.6% y/y) but in Q2 we expect a double-digit slump. If taking into account only imports’ downturn of 20%, GDP must be lower by 10%, but given the negative effects of the export decline, the final figure will be larger. In H2 we are likely to see positive GDP growth in q/q terms. As a result, we expect a 5% GDP decline in 2020,” Stanislav Murashov of Raiffeisen Bank (RZB) said in a note.
56​ RUSSIA Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com