Page 59 - RusRPTJun20

5.2​ Balance of payments, current account
Russia trade dynamics $bn
Apr 2019
May 2019
Jun 2019
Jul 2019
Aug 2019
Sep 2019
Oct 2019
Nov 2019
Dec 2019
Jan 2020
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
Apr 2020
foreign trade t/o
57.5
57.6
51.4
52.4
55.7
55.7
55.9
59.8
58.6
56.1
46.6
46.6
49.8
export of goods
36.5
37.5
31.6
32.5
33.4
33.8
35.0
36.1
35.4
34.9
29.5
28.1
33.4
import of goods
-21.0
-22.0
-19.8
-20.0
-22.2
-21.8
-20.9
-23.7
-23.2
-21.2
-17.0
-18.5
-16.4
good trade balance
15.5
15.5
11.8
12.5
11.2
12.0
14.1
12.4
12.2
13.7
12.5
9.6
17.0
source: GKS
Russia retains surpluses in external accounts. ​While the data is preliminary and subject to revisions, it nevertheless shows that Russia has managed to escape significant deterioration in its balance of payments.
In April, Russia maintained double surpluses in its external accounts. Preliminary estimates released by the CBR showed that Russia’s trade balance ended last month with a surplus of $3.5bn ($35.6bn in 4M20) – a large drop from $14.6bn in April 2019, but still a positive surprise, given the almost 75% y/y decline in the price of Urals crude.
The current account was also in surplus of $1.8bn ($23.5bn in 4M20) helped by the trade surplus and modest volume of capital outflows. The latter reached $6.9bn in April ($23.9bn in 4M20) – a far cry from the monthly outflows of between $20bn and $50bn that Russia recorded in late 2008 and early 2014.
“We retain a +ive view on trade and current account surpluses in 2020. The latest data on Russia’s balance of payments clearly shows that the double shock to the country’s external accounts, caused by the collapse in oil prices and the halt to many export-import operations due to quarantine restrictions, has been largely offset by a major decline in the volume of imports and the relatively stable situation in the country’s capital account,” says ​BSC Global Markets​ chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov.
“Foreign investors continue to view Russian bonds and equities as safe investments, which explains why we have not seen a massive exodus of foreign money from the local stock market. We forecast that in FY20 Russia’s foreign trade surplus will reach $102bn, while its current account will be closed with a surplus of $45bn. Both estimates are much more bullish than those from the CBR: according to the bank’s April forecast, the CBR expects to see a trade surplus of just $43bn in 2020 and current account in a deficit of $35bn,” Tikhomirov added.
59​ RUSSIA Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com