Page 65 - RusRPTJun20

6.0​ Public Sector 6.1​ Budget
Key parameters: draft federal budget for 2020-22
Units
2018
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Revenues
RUB bn
19,454.40
20,174.90
20,363.00
21,246.50
22,058.30
Revenues
% GDP
18.7
18.5
18
17.7
17.2
Expenditure
RUB bn
16,713.00
18,293.70
19 ,82.1
20,632.00
21,770.70
Expenditure
% GDP
16.1
16.8
17.3
17.1
16.9
Balance
RUB bn
2741.4
1,881.20
880.8
614.5
287.6
Balance
% GDP
2.6
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
Federal budget: surplus allocation and debt financing
RUB bn
2019 (current law)
2020F
2021F
2022F
Total
-1881.2
-880.8
-614.5
-287.6
% GDP
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
including:
Debt
1409.7
1599.5
1718.5
1874.5
NWF
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
Other
-3295.7
-2484.9
-2337.4
-2166.1
Source: MinFin, VTB Capital Research.
Shifts in revenues and expenditures eat away Russia’s federal budget surpluses. ​As in 2015 and 2016, federal budget revenues from the production taxes and export tariffs of the oil and gas sector have plummeted. In the first four months of this year these revenues were down by almost 20% y/y. The on-year decline in April was 40%. The revenues are closely linked to $-denominated export prices for crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas.
The price of Urals crude was off by more than 35% y/y during the first four months of this year. Oil prices collapsed in March, and the Urals cost around $18 a barrel in April, which was 70​–75% lower than in April 2019 and January this year. Although the ruble’s depreciation against the US dollar slightly dampened the oil price decline, the Urals price in rubles was still about 65% lower in April than 12 months earlier. The situation is different from previous deep drop in oil prices in 2015, when much of the impact on federal budget revenues was softened by ruble depreciation.
65​ RUSSIA Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com